[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aue/wpaper/1807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spatially Structured Deep Uncertainty, Robust Control, and Climate Change Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Anastasios Xepapadeas
  • Athanasios Yannacopoulos
Abstract
In view of the ambiguities and the deep uncertainty associated with climate change, we study the features of climate change policies that account for spatially structured ambiguity. Ambiguity related to the evolution of the damages from climate change is introduced into a coupled economy-climate model with explicit spatial structure due to heat transport across the globe. We seek to answer questions about how spatial robust regulation regarding climate policies can be formulated; what the potential links of this regulation to the weak and strong version of the precautionary principle (PP) are; and how insights about whether it is costly to follow a PP can be obtained. We also study the emergence of hot spots, which are locations where local deep uncertainty may cause robust regulation to break down for the whole spatial domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios Yannacopoulos, 2018. "Spatially Structured Deep Uncertainty, Robust Control, and Climate Change Policies," DEOS Working Papers 1807, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wpa.deos.aueb.gr/docs/EAERE.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dumas, Bernard & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2000. "Efficient Intertemporal Allocations with Recursive Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 240-259, August.
    2. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November.
    3. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2014. "Cooperation and Competition in Climate Change Policies: Mitigation and Climate Engineering when Countries are Asymmetric," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 190930, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Brock, William & Engström, Gustav & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2014. "Spatial climate-economic models in the design of optimal climate policies across locations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 78-103.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 5, pages 145-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Scott Barrett & Timothy M. Lenton & Antony Millner & Alessandro Tavoni & Stephen Carpenter & John M. Anderies & F. Stuart Chapin & Anne-Sophie Crépin & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Carl Folke & Vic, 2014. "Climate engineering reconsidered," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 527-529, July.
      • Barrett, Scott & Lenton, Timothy M. & Millner, Antony & Tavoni, Alessandro & Carpenter, Stephen & Anderies, John M. & Chapin, F. Stuart & Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Daily, Gretchen & Ehrlich, Paul & Folke,, 2014. "Climate engineering reconsidered," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58139, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
      • Barrett, S. & Lenton, T.M. & Millner, A. & Tavoni, A. & Carpenter, S.R. & Anderies, J.M. & Chapin III, F.S. & Crépin, A.S. & Daily, G. & Ehrlich, P. & Folke, C. & Galaz, V. & Hughes, T.P. & Kautsky, N, 2014. "Climate engineering reconsidered," Other publications TiSEM 880b526e-6ba9-4e48-8463-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Millner, Antony & Dietz, Simon & Heal, Geoffrey, 2010. "Ambiguity and climate policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Hansen, Lars-Peter & Sargent, Thomas-J, 2001. "Acknowledgement Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 213-227, February.
    9. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. "Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 304-320.
    10. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Three Types of Ambiguity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 11, pages 379-430, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. William A. Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2014. "Robust Control of a Spatially Distributed Commercial Fishery," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Elke Moser & Willi Semmler & Gernot Tragler & Vladimir M. Veliov (ed.), Dynamic Optimization in Environmental Economics, edition 127, pages 215-241, Springer.
    12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
    13. Weisbach, David A., 2012. "Should Environmental Taxes Be Precautionary?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 65(2), pages 453-473, June.
    14. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Misspecification," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 6, pages 155-216, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. W. Brock & A. Xepapadeas & A. Yannacopoulos, 2014. "Robust Control and Hot Spots in Spatiotemporal Economic Systems," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 257-289, September.
    16. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    17. Brock, William A. & Engström, Gustav & Grass, Dieter & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2013. "Energy balance climate models and general equilibrium optimal mitigation policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2371-2396.
    18. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    19. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Robust control of forward-looking models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 581-604, April.
    20. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    21. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    22. Anderson, Evan W., 2005. "The dynamics of risk-sensitive allocations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 93-150, December.
    23. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Three types of ambiguity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 422-445.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. W. A. Brock & A. Xepapadeas, 2015. "Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems," Working Papers 2015.66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Athanasios Yannacopoulos & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2013. "Climate Change Policy under Spatially Structured Ambiguity: Hot Spots and the Precautionary Principle," DEOS Working Papers 1332, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    3. Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2024. "Uncertainty and climate change: The IPCC approach vs decision theory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics," Working Papers 616, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Stergios Athanassoglou & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2011. "Pollution Control: When, and How, to be Precautious," Working Papers 2011.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
    7. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    8. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2022. "Prices and Taxes in a Ramsey Climate Policy Model under Heterogeneous Beliefs and Ambiguity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-56, October.
    10. Athanassoglou, Stergios & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2012. "Pollution control with uncertain stock dynamics: When, and how, to be precautious," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 304-320.
    11. Brock, William & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2021. "Regional climate policy under deep uncertainty: robust control and distributional concerns," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 211-238, June.
    12. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
    13. Electra V. Petracou & Anastasios Xepapadeas & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Decision Making Under Model Uncertainty: Fréchet–Wasserstein Mean Preferences," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1195-1211, February.
    14. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Three Types of Ambiguity," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 11, pages 379-430, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. W. Botzen & Jeroen Bergh, 2014. "Specifications of Social Welfare in Economic Studies of Climate Policy: Overview of Criteria and Related Policy Insights," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 1-33, May.
    16. Saghafian, Soroush, 2018. "Ambiguous partially observable Markov decision processes: Structural results and applications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1-35.
    17. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Emmerling, Johannes, 2018. "Climate engineering under deep uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 207-224.
    18. Li, Jing, 2018. "Essays on model uncertainty in financial models," Other publications TiSEM 202cd910-7ef1-4db4-94ae-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    20. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; ambiguity; robust control; spatial regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ekaterini Glynou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diauegr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.