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Debt Decomposition and the Role of Inflation: A Security Level Analysis for India

Author

Listed:
  • Piyali Das
  • Chetan Ghate

    (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi University, Delhi)

Abstract
In this paper, to study India’s debt dynamics, we assemble a novel data-set on Indian public debt with consistently defined aggregate annual components from 1951–2018, and Centre-State security level data from 2000–2018. Based on aggregate debt data, we quantify the contribution of inflation, real GDP growth, nominal interest rates and primary deficit/surplus towards India’s debt-dynamics. We find that inflation is an important component in financing India’s government debt historically. From the security level data, using the Hall-Sargent methodology, we find that nominal returns on the marketable and non-marketable portions of the Centre’s debt account for the highest contribution towards changes in public debt. Our paper helps inform the debate on the adoption of flexible inflation targeting in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Piyali Das & Chetan Ghate, 2022. "Debt Decomposition and the Role of Inflation: A Security Level Analysis for India," IEG Working Papers 451, Institute of Economic Growth.
    • Handle: RePEc:awe:wpaper:451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sachdeva, Paras & Ahmad, Wasim, 2024. "Fiscal and monetary policy regimes: New evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Decomposition; Fiscal Dominance; Indian Economy; Flexible Inflation Targeting; Public Debt in EMDEs.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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