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Feature-based intermittent demand forecast combinations: bias, accuracy and inventory implications

Author

Listed:
  • Li Li
  • Yanfei Kang
  • Fotios Petropoulos
  • Feng Li
Abstract
Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in production systems and supply chain management. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from academic and practical perspectives. However, limited attention has been given to forecast combination methods, which have achieved competitive performance in forecasting fast-moving time series. The current study aims to examine the empirical outcomes of some existing forecast combination methods and propose a generalized feature-based framework for intermittent demand forecasting. The proposed framework has been shown to improve the accuracy of point and quantile forecasts based on two real data sets. Further, some analysis of features, forecasting pools and computational efficiency is also provided. The findings indicate the intelligibility and flexibility of the proposed approach in intermittent demand forecasting and offer insights regarding inventory decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Fotios Petropoulos & Feng Li, 2022. "Feature-based intermittent demand forecast combinations: bias, accuracy and inventory implications," Papers 2204.08283, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2204.08283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Schlaich, Tim & Hoberg, Kai, 2024. "When is the next order? Nowcasting channel inventories with Point-of-Sales data to predict the timing of retail orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(1), pages 35-49.

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