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Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks

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  • Mario Alloza
  • Jesus Gonzalo
  • Carlos Sanz
Abstract
We provide evidence that many narrative shocks used by prominent literature are persistent. We show that the two leading methods to estimate impulse responses to an independently identified shock (local projections and distributed lag models) treat persistence differently, hence identifying different objects. We propose corrections to re-establish the equivalence between local projections and distributed lag models, providing applied researchers with methods and guidance to estimate their desired object of interest. We apply these methods to well-known empirical work and find that how persistence is treated has a sizable impact on the estimates of dynamic effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Alloza & Jesus Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2020. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Papers 2006.14047, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2006.14047
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2021. "Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 107-130.
    3. James Graham & Alistair Read, 2023. "House Prices, Monetary Policy and Commodities: Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    5. Dennis Bonam & Paul Konietschke, 2020. "Tax multipliers across the business cycle," Working Papers 699, DNB.
    6. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    7. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Codrina Rada & Marcio Santetti & Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The US labour share of income: What shocks matter?," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    8. Ochs, A. C.R., 2021. "A New Monetary Policy Shock with Text Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2148, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Gaston Gelos & Nora Lamersdorf & Emanuel Moench, 2024. "The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields," BIS Working Papers 1195, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Raphaelle G. Coulombe & Akhil Rao, 2023. "Fires and Local Labor Markets," Papers 2308.02739, arXiv.org.
    11. Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "Comment on "What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 232-241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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