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Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Process

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  • Battulga Gankhuu
Abstract
This study introduces marginal density functions of the general Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process. In the case of the Bayesian MS-VAR process, we provide closed-form density functions and Monte-Carlo simulation algorithms, including the importance sampling method. The Monte-Carlo simulation method departs from the previous simulation methods because it removes the duplication in a regime vector.

Suggested Citation

  • Battulga Gankhuu, 2024. "Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Process," Papers 2404.11235, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.11235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Battulga Gankhuu & Jacob Kleinow & Altangerel Lkhamsuren & Andreas Horsch, 2022. "Dividends And Compound Poisson Processes: A New Stochastic Stock Price Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(03), pages 1-36, May.
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    3. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
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    7. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
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