[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1907.05381.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Adaptive Pricing in Insurance: Generalized Linear Models and Gaussian Process Regression Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Yuqing Zhang
  • Neil Walton
Abstract
We study the application of dynamic pricing to insurance. We view this as an online revenue management problem where the insurance company looks to set prices to optimize the long-run revenue from selling a new insurance product. We develop two pricing models: an adaptive Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and an adaptive Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. Both balance between exploration, where we choose prices in order to learn the distribution of demands & claims for the insurance product, and exploitation, where we myopically choose the best price from the information gathered so far. The performance of the pricing policies is measured in terms of regret: the expected revenue loss caused by not using the optimal price. As is commonplace in insurance, we model demand and claims by GLMs. In our adaptive GLM design, we use the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation (MQLE) to estimate the unknown parameters. We show that, if prices are chosen with suitably decreasing variability, the MQLE parameters eventually exist and converge to the correct values, which in turn implies that the sequence of chosen prices will also converge to the optimal price. In the adaptive GP regression model, we sample demand and claims from Gaussian Processes and then choose selling prices by the upper confidence bound rule. We also analyze these GLM and GP pricing algorithms with delayed claims. Although similar results exist in other domains, this is among the first works to consider dynamic pricing problems in the field of insurance. We also believe this is the first work to consider Gaussian Process regression in the context of insurance pricing. These initial findings suggest that online machine learning algorithms could be a fruitful area of future investigation and application in insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuqing Zhang & Neil Walton, 2019. "Adaptive Pricing in Insurance: Generalized Linear Models and Gaussian Process Regression Approaches," Papers 1907.05381, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1907.05381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.05381
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omar Besbes & Assaf Zeevi, 2012. "Blind Network Revenue Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1537-1550, December.
    2. Yossi Aviv & Amit Pazgal, 2005. "A Partially Observed Markov Decision Process for Dynamic Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1400-1416, September.
    3. N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2014. "Dynamic Pricing with an Unknown Demand Model: Asymptotically Optimal Semi-Myopic Policies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1142-1167, October.
    4. Sébastien Bubeck & Rémi Munos & Gilles Stoltz & Csaba Szepesvari, 2011. "X-Armed Bandits," Post-Print hal-00450235, HAL.
    5. Guillermo Gallego & Garrett van Ryzin, 1994. "Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(8), pages 999-1020, August.
    6. Gadi Fibich & Arieh Gavious & Oded Lowengart, 2003. "Explicit Solutions of Optimization Models and Differential Games with Nonsmooth (Asymmetric) Reference-Price Effects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 721-734, October.
    7. Praveen K. Kopalle & Ambar G. Rao & João L. Assunção, 1996. "Asymmetric Reference Price Effects and Dynamic Pricing Policies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 60-85.
    8. Josef Broder & Paat Rusmevichientong, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing Under a General Parametric Choice Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 965-980, August.
    9. de Jong,Piet & Heller,Gillian Z., 2008. "Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879149, September.
    10. Paat Rusmevichientong & Benjamin Van Roy & Peter W. Glynn, 2006. "A Nonparametric Approach to Multiproduct Pricing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 82-98, February.
    11. Paat Rusmevichientong & John N. Tsitsiklis, 2010. "Linearly Parameterized Bandits," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 395-411, May.
    12. J. Michael Harrison & N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2012. "Bayesian Dynamic Pricing Policies: Learning and Earning Under a Binary Prior Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 570-586, March.
    13. Omar Besbes & Assaf Zeevi, 2009. "Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1407-1420, December.
    14. Eric A. Greenleaf, 1995. "The Impact of Reference Price Effects on the Profitability of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 82-104.
    15. Eric Cope, 2007. "Bayesian strategies for dynamic pricing in e‐commerce," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 265-281, April.
    16. Bailey, Robert A. & Simon, LeRoy J., 1960. "Two Studies in Automobile Insurance Ratemaking," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(4), pages 192-217, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. R.L. Gudmundarson & M. Guerra & A. B. de Moura, 2021. "Minimizing Ruin Probability Under Dependencies for Insurance Pricing," Working Papers REM 2021/0193, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Ragnar Levy Gudmundarson & Manuel Guerra & Alexandra Bugalho de Moura, 2021. "Minimizing ruin probability under dependencies for insurance pricing," Papers 2108.10075, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Baichun & Yang, Wei, 2021. "A Bayesian learning model for estimating unknown demand parameter in revenue management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 248-262.
    2. Yang, Xiangyu & Zhang, Jianghua & Hu, Jian-Qiang & Hu, Jiaqiao, 2024. "Nonparametric multi-product dynamic pricing with demand learning via simultaneous price perturbation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 319(1), pages 191-205.
    3. Arnoud V. den Boer, 2014. "Dynamic Pricing with Multiple Products and Partially Specified Demand Distribution," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 863-888, August.
    4. Huashuai Qu & Ilya O. Ryzhov & Michael C. Fu & Eric Bergerson & Megan Kurka & Ludek Kopacek, 2020. "Learning Demand Curves in B2B Pricing: A New Framework and Case Study," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(5), pages 1287-1306, May.
    5. Yang, Chaolin & Xiong, Yi, 2020. "Nonparametric advertising budget allocation with inventory constraint," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 631-641.
    6. N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2017. "Chasing Demand: Learning and Earning in a Changing Environment," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 277-307, May.
    7. Ying Zhong & L. Jeff Hong & Guangwu Liu, 2021. "Earning and Learning with Varying Cost," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(8), pages 2379-2394, August.
    8. Yiwei Chen & Cong Shi, 2023. "Network revenue management with online inverse batch gradient descent method," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(7), pages 2123-2137, July.
    9. Arnoud V. den Boer & N. Bora Keskin, 2020. "Discontinuous Demand Functions: Estimation and Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4516-4534, October.
    10. Jue Wang, 2021. "Optimal Bayesian Demand Learning over Short Horizons," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(4), pages 1154-1177, April.
    11. Arnoud V. den Boer & Bert Zwart, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Finite Inventories," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 965-978, August.
    12. Sentao Miao & Xi Chen & Xiuli Chao & Jiaxi Liu & Yidong Zhang, 2022. "Context‐based dynamic pricing with online clustering," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3559-3575, September.
    13. Doan, Xuan Vinh & Lei, Xiao & Shen, Siqian, 2020. "Pricing of reusable resources under ambiguous distributions of demand and service time with emerging applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 235-251.
    14. Ningyuan Chen & Guillermo Gallego, 2018. "A Primal-dual Learning Algorithm for Personalized Dynamic Pricing with an Inventory Constraint," Papers 1812.09234, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    15. Arnoud V. den Boer & N. Bora Keskin, 2022. "Dynamic Pricing with Demand Learning and Reference Effects," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7112-7130, October.
    16. Thomas Loots & Arnoud V. den Boer, 2023. "Data‐driven collusion and competition in a pricing duopoly with multinomial logit demand," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1169-1186, April.
    17. Athanassios N. Avramidis & Arnoud V. Boer, 2021. "Dynamic pricing with finite price sets: a non-parametric approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 94(1), pages 1-34, August.
    18. Yining Wang & Boxiao Chen & David Simchi-Levi, 2021. "Multimodal Dynamic Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6136-6152, October.
    19. Athanassios N. Avramidis, 2020. "A pricing problem with unknown arrival rate and price sensitivity," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 92(1), pages 77-106, August.
    20. Stefanus Jasin, 2014. "Reoptimization and Self-Adjusting Price Control for Network Revenue Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1168-1178, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1907.05381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.