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Can Analysts Predict Rallies Better Than Crashes?

Author

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  • Ivan Medovikov
Abstract
We use the copula approach to study the structure of dependence between sell-side analysts' consensus recommendations and subsequent security returns, with a focus on asymmetric tail dependence. We match monthly vintages of I/B/E/S recommendations for the period January to December 2011 with excess security returns during six months following recommendation issue. Using a symmetrized Joe-Clayton Copula (SJC) model we find evidence to suggest that analysts can identify stocks that will substantially outperform, but not underperform relative to the market, and that their predictive ability is conditional on recommendation changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Medovikov, 2014. "Can Analysts Predict Rallies Better Than Crashes?," Papers 1405.3225, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1405.3225
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
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    4. Brad M. Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Brett Trueman, 2010. "Ratings Changes, Ratings Levels, and the Predictive Value of Analysts’ Recommendations," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(2), pages 533-553, June.
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    7. Ning, Cathy & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2009. "Extreme return-volume dependence in East-Asian stock markets: A copula approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 202-209, December.
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    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Roger, Tristan, 2017. "Reporting errors in the I/B/E/S earnings forecast database: J. Doe vs. J. Doe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 170-176.
    2. I. Medovikov S. & И. Медовиков С., 2019. "Могут ли фондовые аналитики предсказать рыночный риск? Новые сведения из теории копулы // Can Stock Analysts Predict Market Risk? New Evidence from Copula Theory," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(1), pages 38-48.
    3. Taussig, Roi D., 2022. "Market prices, analysts' predictions, and Covid19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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