[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ant/wpaper/2011014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Eurozone inflation differentials and the ECB

Author

Listed:
  • PIROVANO, Mara
  • VAN POECK, André
Abstract
This paper presents new evidence on inflation differentials in the Euro Area from different perspectives, and extending the sample including the recent financial crisis. First, we give an informal analysis of the evolution of inflation dispersion and inflation differentials since the start of EMU. Second, we perform formal statistical analyses of the stability properties of inflation differentials in the period 1999-2010. Univariate and multivariate tests reject the null of stability of inflation differentials when conducted over the entire sample period. However, when the financial crisis is excluded, the null of stability is not rejected for the large majority of countries. This finding implies the beginning of a new tendency since the global financial turmoil, and new challenges for the common monetary policy. Finally, we analyze the determinants of inflation differentials, empirically testing a number of theories including price level equalization, productivity differentials, differences in cyclical positions, labor and product market rigidities. We conclude that inflation differentials are not the result of equilibrating, transitory forces, but rather of persistent structural and country-specific factors. This calls for structural reforms in labor and product markets, and countercyclical fiscal policy measures at the individual country level. As inflation differentials pose a serious challenge for the monetary policy of the ECB, we further believe that the ECB should be equipped with additional policy instruments to cope with them in a more direct way.

Suggested Citation

  • PIROVANO, Mara & VAN POECK, André, 2011. "Eurozone inflation differentials and the ECB," Working Papers 2011014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2011014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/4c4d78/4335ceee.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margarida Duarte, 2003. "The euro and inflation divergence in Europe," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Sum), pages 53-70.
    2. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    3. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU [‘European financial integration and equity returns: a theory-based assessment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394.
    4. Consuelo Gámez Amián & Amalia Morales Zumaquero., 2002. "Complete or Partial Inflation Convergence in the EU?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/09, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    5. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    7. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "What Explains Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(01-02), pages 57-67, January.
    8. Kocenda, Evzen & Papell, David H, 1997. "Inflation Convergence within the European Union: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 189-198, July.
    9. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert Cumby & Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey, 2002. "Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 497-516, August.
    10. Weber, Axel A. & Beck, Günter W., 2005. "Inflation rate dispersion and convergence in monetary and economic unions: lessons for the ECB," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    12. Siklos, Pierre L & Wohar, Mark E, 1997. "Convergence in Interest Rates and Inflation Rates across Countries and over Time," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 129-141, February.
    13. John H. Rogers, 2002. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: how close is Europe to the United States?," International Finance Discussion Papers 740, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2014. "Euro area inflation as a predictor of national inflation rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1048-1065.
    2. Stijn Ferrari & Mara Pirovano, 2016. "Does one size fit all at all times? The role of country specificities and state dependencies in predicting banking crises," Working Paper Research 297, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Hualde, Javier & Iacone, Fabrizio, 2017. "Revisiting inflation in the euro area allowing for long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 145-150.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Montagnoli & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials: Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2007_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:315-333 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2011. "The Global Financial Crisis and Stochastic Convergence in the Euro Area," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 315-333, August.
    6. Giulio Palomba & Emma Sarno & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 231-270, October.
    7. VAN POECK, André, 2009. "One money and fifteen needs inflation and output convergence in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2009001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    8. Angelos Liontakis & Christos T. Papadas, 2010. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," Working Papers 2010-6, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    9. André Van Poeck, 2010. "One Money and Sixteen Needs: Has the ECB’s Monetary Policy Become More Balanced Towards the Needs of the Member States?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 43-60, April.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2016. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe vs. the Eurozone: Non-linearities and long memory," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 519-538, November.
    11. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit labor cost growth differentials in the Euro area, Germany, and the US: lessons from PANIC and cluster analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200703, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Karl Taylor, 2012. "Inflation convergence in Central and Eastern Europe with a view to adopting the euro," Working Papers 12-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    13. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey," MPRA Paper 16770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:lan:wpaper:2442 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Helmut Herwartz & Florian Siedenburg, 2013. "To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 455-467, April.
    16. Liontakis, Angelos E. & Papadas, Christos T., 2009. "Distribution Dynamics of Food Price Inflation Rates in EU: An Alternative Conditional Density Estimator Approach," 113th Seminar, September 3-6, 2009, Chania, Crete, Greece 58084, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:2440 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Cavallero, Alessandro, 2011. "The convergence of inflation rates in the EU-12 area: A distribution dynamics approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 341-357, June.
    19. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(4), pages 14-34, Winter.
    20. Afflatet, Nicolas, 2014. "European Monetary Policy in the Heterogeneous Currency Area and the Open Question of Convergence," EconStor Preprints 93382, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    21. repec:lan:wpaper:2668 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:lan:wpaper:2522 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management, Romanian-American University, vol. 2(1), pages 289-316, July.
    24. Lopez, Claude & Papell, David H., 2012. "Convergence of Euro area inflation rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1440-1458.
    25. Evan Lau & Koon Po Lee, 2008. "Interdependence of income between China and ASEAN‐5 countries," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 148-161, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; Inflation differentials; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ant:wpaper:2011014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joeri Nys (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ftufsbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.