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Climate Change and Food Security to 2030: A Global Economy-wide Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    (Centre for International Economic Studies, School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Kym Anderson

    (Centre for International Economic Studies, School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households who comprise most of the worldÂ’s poor and whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses a global economy-wide model to assess the expected (in some cases positive) effects on temperate zone crop productivity and the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. The net effect of those combined shocks on the agricultural sectorÂ’s competitiveness in any developing country is an economy-wide empirical matter, since unskilled workers are employed in nonfarm as well as farm activities. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results provide a range of consequences for international agricultural prices and for national food consumption, net farm income and economic welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernesto Valenzuela & Kym Anderson, 2011. "Climate Change and Food Security to 2030: A Global Economy-wide Perspective," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2011-02, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2011-02
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    File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/publications/present/CIES_DP1102.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
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    6. Garnaut,Ross, 2008. "The Garnaut Climate Change Review," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521744447, September.
    7. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
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    9. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Taheripour, Farzad & Tyner, Wally, 2010. "Modeling Biofuels Policies in General Equilibrium: Insights, Pitfalls and Opportunities," GTAP Working Papers 3406, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0, November.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110558.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; crop and labour productivity growth; global economy-wide model projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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