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Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects

Author

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  • Dominguez, Kathryn M.
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Abstract
The time is ripe for a re-examination of the question whether foreign exchange intervention can affect the exchange rate. We attempt to isolate two distinct effects: the portfolio effect, whereby an increase in the supply of marks must reduce the dollar/mark rate (for given expected rates of return) and the additional expectations effect, whereby intervention that is publicly known may alter investors' expectations of the future exchange rate, which will feed back to the current equilibrium price. We estimate a system consisting of two equations, one describing investors' portfolio behavior and the other their formation of expectations, where the two endogenous variables are the current spot rate and investors' expectation of the future spot rate. We use new data sources: actual daily data on intervention by the Fed, the Bundesbank, and the Swiss National Bank, newspaper stories on exchange rate policy announcements and known intervention, and survey data on investors' expectations. We find evidence of both an expectations effect and a portfolio effect. The statistical significance of the portfolio effect suggests that even sterilized intervention may have had positive effects during the sample period. For the magnitude of the effects to be large requires that intervention be publicly known.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominguez, Kathryn M. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1992. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233167, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233167
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.233167
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "The Crisis in the EMS and the Transition to EMU: An Interim Assessment," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-022, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Valentina Cepeda & Bibiana Taboada-Arango & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Can Central Bank Credibility Improve Monetary Policy? A Meta-Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1239, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Anna Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention as a Policy Tool," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 319-339, December.
    5. Richard N. Cooper & Jane Sneddon Little, 2001. "U.S. monetary policy in an integrating world: 1960 to 2000," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 33-56.
    6. Kim Kyung Soo, 2000. "Foreign Exchange Intervention For Internal Balance," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 59-75.
    7. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?," Working Papers (Old Series) 9203, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1991. "What has foreign exchange market intervention since the Plaza Agreement accomplished?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 39-64, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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