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Experience, Expectations and Hindsight: Evidence of a Cognitive Wedge in Stated Preference Retrospectives

Author

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  • Bennett, Michael
  • Provencher, Bill
  • Bishop, Richard C.
Abstract
This paper combines fishing trip decisions - made before observing trip outcomes - with responses to set of double-bounded dichotomous choice CV questions regarding the outcome of the trip, to explore cognitive elements of choice and their implications for decision modeling and welfare analysis. Extending the approach taken by McConnell et al. (1999), wherein the unobserved component of random utility is linked between the trip decision and the retrospective trip evaluation, we decompose the unobserved component into linked and independent elements, and make the linked component a function of cognitive factors hypothesized as affecting differences between the RP and SP responses. Results suggest that a significant "wedge" exists between the closely related trip decision and its retrospective valuation, and that this wedge is not fully explained by factors such as experience, recall, and unobserved time costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bennett, Michael & Provencher, Bill & Bishop, Richard C., 2004. "Experience, Expectations and Hindsight: Evidence of a Cognitive Wedge in Stated Preference Retrospectives," Staff Papers 12642, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wisagr:12642
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12642
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Joseph A. Herriges & Catherine L. Kling & Daniel J. Phaneuf, 1999. "Corner Solution Models of Recreation Demand: A Comparison of Competing Frameworks," Chapters, in: Joseph A. Herriges & Catherine L. Kling (ed.), Valuing Recreation and the Environment, chapter 6, pages 163-198, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    1. Daniel McFadden, 2009. "The human side of mechanism design: a tribute to Leo Hurwicz and Jean-Jacque Laffont," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 13(1), pages 77-100, April.

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