[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333304.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An introduction of GTEM-Food: A baseline calibration with a focus on food

Author

Listed:
  • Nong, Duy
  • Mason-D’Croz, Daniel
  • Lu, Yingying
  • Marcos Martinez, Raymundo
  • Palmer, Jeda
Abstract
There is limited understanding of the level of impact on food systems globally, particularly the interaction between climate change and mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies. To address this limitation, and to improve future analysis of climate change and climate mitigation policies we have extended GTEM-C to become GTEM-Food. First, we used multiple data sources to update the model database with more agriculture and food sectors/commodities. Second, we updated the production and consumption structures for many food sectors and commodities. Finally, we revised and updated the baseline SSP2 GTEM-Food projections considering a new starting point and trends. Results show that most world output levels increase in 2014-2060, except coal and natural gas. Vegetable and fruit double their output level ($1434 billion) in 2060 compared to the level ($779 billion) in 2014. Dairy milk also follows the same pattern, reaching $1447 billion in 2060 compared to $797 billion in 2014. Cattle meat also increases significantly in 2014-60, reaching $1362 billion in 2060 relative to $709 billion in 2014. Coal-fired electricity substantially reclines from 8.6 million GWh in 2014 to 3.4 million GWh in 2060. Solar and geothermal power increase their output significantly in 2014-60 and become main sources of power by 2060, reaching 6.5 and 5.2 million GWh in 2060. From an Australian perspective, agricultural output increases by up to 68% in 2060 compared to the 2014 level. The ratio of food output relative to non-food keep constant in 2014-2060 at 0.043. Shares of agriculture sectors in Australia stay stable at 6.3%, while shares of agricultural emissions in Australia relative to the total Australian emissions increase from 25% in 2030 to 32% in 2060 because emissions from fossil-based electricity generation decline. In general, agricultural emissions in Australia only increase slightly reaching 108 MtCO2e in 2030 and 129 MtCO2e in 2060.

Suggested Citation

  • Nong, Duy & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Lu, Yingying & Marcos Martinez, Raymundo & Palmer, Jeda, 2021. "An introduction of GTEM-Food: A baseline calibration with a focus on food," Conference papers 333304, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333304/files/10395.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ma. Laurice Jamero & Motoharu Onuki & Miguel Esteban & Xyza Kristina Billones-Sensano & Nicholson Tan & Angelie Nellas & Hiroshi Takagi & Nguyen Danh Thao & Ven Paolo Valenzuela, 2017. "Small-island communities in the Philippines prefer local measures to relocation in response to sea-level rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 581-586, August.
    2. Zinkernagel, Jana & Maestre-Valero, Jose. F. & Seresti, Sogol Y. & Intrigliolo, Diego S., 2020. "New technologies and practical approaches to improve irrigation management of open field vegetable crops," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. P. S. J. Minderhoud & L. Coumou & G. Erkens & H. Middelkoop & E. Stouthamer, 2019. "Mekong delta much lower than previously assumed in sea-level rise impact assessments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Zsofia Barany & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Engines of sectoral labor productivity growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 304-343, January.
    5. Vivek Tulpule & Stephen Brown & Jaekyu Lim & Cain Polidano & Horn Pant & Brian S. Fisher, 1999. "The Kyoto Protocol: An Economic Analysis Using GTEM," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 257-285.
    6. Mpanga, Isaac K. & Idowu, Omololu John, 2021. "A Decade of Irrigation Water use trends in Southwestern USA: The Role of Irrigation Technology, Best Management Practices, and Outreach Education Programs," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    8. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kostevšek, Anja & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Papa, Gregor & Petek, Janez, 2016. "The concept of an ecosystem model to support the transformation to sustainable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1460-1469.
    2. Carolyn Fischer & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2006. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 73-86.
    3. Sem J. Duijndam & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Liselotte C. Hagedoorn & Philip Bubeck & Toon Haer & My Pham & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2023. "Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood risk from sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-22, February.
    4. Durán-Romero, Gemma & López, Ana M. & Beliaeva, Tatiana & Ferasso, Marcos & Garonne, Christophe & Jones, Paul, 2020. "Bridging the gap between circular economy and climate change mitigation policies through eco-innovations and Quintuple Helix Model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Zhang, Yang & Zhang, Yan & Gao, Yan & McLaughlin, Neil B. & Huang, Dandan & Wang, Yang & Chen, Xuewen & Zhang, Shixiu & Liang, Aizhen, 2024. "Effects of tillage practices on environment, energy, and economy of maize production in Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Standardi, Gabriele & Cai, Yiyong & Yeh, Sonia, 2017. "Sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details: The case of Italy's carbon mitigation policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 116-128.
    7. Liu, Yong & Ruiz-Menjivar, Jorge & Zhang, Junbiao, 2022. "Climate adaptation and technical efficiency of rice production in Central China," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322521, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Sen, Ali, 2020. "Structural change within the services sector, Baumol's cost disease, and cross-country productivity differences," MPRA Paper 99614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Diego Comin & Ana Danieli & Martí Mestieri, 2020. "Income-Driven Labor-Market Polarization," Working Paper Series WP-2020-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Stefano Pinardi & Matteo Salis & Gabriele Sartor & Rosa Meo, 2023. "EU−Africa: Digital and Social Questions in a Multicultural Agroecological Transition for the Cocoa Production in Africa," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-29, July.
    11. Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Hajime Morishima & Hiroshi Kawata & Ryo Shibata & Kazuma Bunya & Jin Moteki, 2022. "Challenges for Japan's Economy in the Decarbonization Process," Bank of Japan Research Papers 22-06-09, Bank of Japan.
    12. Khed, Vijayalaxmi D. & Jat, M. L. & Krishna, Vijesh V., 2022. "Incentives for Experimenting with Sustainable Intensification: Can Direct Payments to Farmers Help Diversify the Cropping Systems in South India?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), September.
    13. Wang, Yuhan & Lewis, David J., 2024. "Wildfires and climate change have lowered the economic value of western U.S. forests by altering risk expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Antonio Valente & Carlos Costa & Leonor Pereira & Bruno Soares & José Lima & Salviano Soares, 2022. "A LoRaWAN IoT System for Smart Agriculture for Vine Water Status Determination," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Yingying Lu & Heinz Schandl, 2021. "Do sectoral material efficiency improvements add up to greenhouse gas emissions reduction on an economy‐wide level?," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 523-536, April.
    16. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena, 2021. "Droughts and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers halshs-03420657, HAL.
    17. Snorre Kverndokk & Lars Lindholt & Knut Rosendahl, 2000. "Stabilization of CO 2 concentrations: mitigation scenarios using the Petro model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 3(2), pages 195-224, June.
    18. Khodran Alzahrani & Mubashar Ali & Muhammad Imran Azeem & Bader Alhafi Alotaibi, 2023. "Efficacy of Public Extension and Advisory Services for Sustainable Rice Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, May.
    19. Wencun Zhou & Zhengjia Liu & Sisi Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Cropland Area and Its Response to Increasing Regional Extreme Weather Events in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China during 1992–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-28, September.
    20. Alexandra Nichols, 2019. "Climate change, natural hazards, and relocation: insights from Nabukadra and Navuniivi villages in Fiji," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 255-271, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.