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A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: implications for energy systems and economy

Author

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  • Vandyck, Toon
  • Saveyn, Bert
  • Keramidas, Kimon
  • Kitous, Alban
  • Vrontisi, Zoi
Abstract
This paper presents a model-based assessment of the United Nations-led round of international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21). We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with a top-down economic model that captures economy-wide interactions. We analyse the impact of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by the individual countries put forward in the run-up to COP21 on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. We also illustrate how the gap between the Paris pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2°C can be bridged, taking into account both equity and efficiency considerations. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that global action to cut emissions is consistent with robust economic growth. Emerging and lowest-income economies will maintain high rates of economic growth. The analysis also provides evidence that the use of smart fiscal policies tailored to each region, i.e. increasing emission auctions and taxes, reducing indirect taxes to consumption and investment, and/or lowering labour taxes, can further increase GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Vandyck, Toon & Saveyn, Bert & Keramidas, Kimon & Kitous, Alban & Vrontisi, Zoi, 2016. "A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: implications for energy systems and economy," Conference papers 332704, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332704
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332704/files/7892.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. Sebayang, Abdi Hanra & Ideris, Fazril & Silitonga, Arridina Susan & Shamsuddin, A.H. & Zamri, M.F.M.A. & Pulungan, Muhammad Anhar & Siahaan, Sihar & Alfansury, Munawar & Kusumo, F. & Milano, Jassinnee, 2023. "Optimization of ultrasound-assisted oil extraction from Carica candamarcensis; A potential Oleaginous tropical seed oil for biodiesel production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 434-444.
    4. Mauricio Marrone & Martina K Linnenluecke, 2020. "Interdisciplinary Research Maps: A new technique for visualizing research topics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng & Corong, Erwin, 2023. "Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Boonman, Hettie & Pisciella, Paolo & Reynès, Frédéric, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of policy measures, technological progress and societal attitude in energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    7. Piris-Cabezas, Pedro & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Leslie, Gabriela, 2023. "Estimating the potential of international carbon markets to increase global climate ambition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Nishiura, Osamu & Krey, Volker & Fricko, Oliver & van Ruijven, Bas & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2024. "Integration of energy system and computable general equilibrium models: An approach complementing energy and economic representations for mitigation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    9. Zhang, Qingyong & Mao, Xianqiang & Lu, Jianhong & Guo, Zhi & Duman, Zaenhaer & Chen, Yongpeng & Song, Peng & Tu, Kevin, 2024. "EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    10. Kimon Keramidas & Silvana Mima & Adrien Bidaud, 2024. "Opportunities and roadblocks in the decarbonisation of the global steel sector: A demand and production modelling approach," Post-Print hal-04383385, HAL.

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