[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of the international financial crisis on child poverty in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Chitiga, Margaret
  • Decaluwé, Bernard
  • Mabugu, Ramos
  • Maisonnave, Hélène
  • Robichaud, Véronique
  • Shepherd, Debra
  • Van der Berg, Servaas
  • Von Fintel, Dieter
Abstract
This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. Computable General Equilibrium modeling is employed to estimate the impact of the crisis on key macro variables. Results of the macro model are then used to assess the individual and household level effects of the crisis using household survey data and suitable micro-econometric techniques. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the Business as Usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome. Setting too high poverty lines and focusing on the poverty headcount ratio only would conceal some of this effect. Of particular importance to this study and of pertinence for other developing countries is how the effects of the crisis are mediated through the Child Support Grant, a uniquely South African feature which has been expanded greatly in recent years and is particularly aimed at children in poor families. This offers a potential source of protection against poverty for poor children, if the care-givers regard such grants as firstly for the benefit of the children concerned.

Suggested Citation

  • Chitiga, Margaret & Decaluwé, Bernard & Mabugu, Ramos & Maisonnave, Hélène & Robichaud, Véronique & Shepherd, Debra & Van der Berg, Servaas & Von Fintel, Dieter, 2010. "The impact of the international financial crisis on child poverty in South Africa," Conference papers 332009, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332009/files/4729.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, M. & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behavior with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explain," CUDARE Working Papers 198579, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-1417, November.
    4. Eickhout, Bas & van Meijl, Hans & Tabeau, Andrzej & Stehfest, Elke, 2008. "The Impact of Environmental and Climate Constraints on Global Food Supply," GTAP Working Papers 2608, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henning TARP JENSEN, 2009. "General Equilibrium Impact Evaluation of Road Sector Investment Projects in Ghana," EcoMod2009 21500087, EcoMod.
    2. Tabeau, Andrzej A. & van Meijl, Hans & Banse, Martin & Woltjer, Geert B., 2008. "Agricultural Incomes Development in EU till 2030: Scenario Analysis of Main Driving Factors," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland 48115, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52786, World Bank.
    4. Balie, Jean & Strutt, Anna & Nelgen, Signe & Narayanan, 2018. "Infrastructure investments for improved market access in subSaharan Africa: A CGE analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, 2012. "Improving Land-use modelling within CGE to assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 122862, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Kamel Louhichi & Pascal Tillie & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2020. "Modelling Farm-household Livelihoods in Developing Economies Insights from three country case studies using LSMS-ISA data [Modélisation des moyens de subsistance des ménages agricoles dans les écon," Working Papers hal-02544905, HAL.
    8. Tabeau, Andrzej & van Meijl, Hans & Overmars, Koen P. & Stehfest, Elke, 2017. "REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 73-87.
    9. Banse, Martin & Rothe, Andrea & Tabeau, Andrzej & Meijl, Hans van & Woltjer, Geert, 2013. "Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies," Working papers 155706, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. Kamel Louhichi & Pascal Tillie & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2020. "Modelling Farm-household Livelihoods in Developing Economies Insights from three country case studies using LSMS-ISA data [Modélisation des moyens de subsistance des ménages agricoles dans les écon," Post-Print hal-02544905, HAL.
    11. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.
    12. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.
    13. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    14. Jun Yang & Huanguang Qiu & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 2008. "Fighting global food price rises in the developing world: the response of China and its effect on domestic and world markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 453-464, November.
    15. Benin, Samuel & Gebremedhin, Berhanu & Smale, Melinda & Pender, John & Ehui, Simeon, 2003. "Determinants of cereal diversity in communities and on household farms of the northern Ethiopian highlands," ESA Working Papers 289085, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    16. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Henseler, Martin & Piot-Lepetit, Isabelle & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mellado, Aida Gonzalez & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Parisi, Claudia & Hélaine, Sophie, 2013. "On the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 166-176.
    18. Shiferaw, Bekele & Holden, Stein, 1999. "Soil Erosion and Smallholders' Conservation Decisions in the Highlands of Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 739-752, April.
    19. Margarita Gafaro & José Antonio Ocampo & Sonia Daniela Monroy-Cely & Alejandro Rueda-Sanz, 2019. "Revisión de experiencias de apoyo a la agricultura familiar," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 91, pages 1-77, August.
    20. Grant, Jason H. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2006. "Extending General Equilibrium to the Tariff Line: U.S. Dairy in the DOHA Development Agenda," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25305, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.