[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saea15/196612.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Li
  • Kinnucan, Henry
Abstract
This paper focuses on the U.S. agricultural trade against the remaining of the world. The dynamic ARDL model of error correction version is applied, not only investigating if there is J-curve effect in the short-run or not, but also taking a deep analysis for U.S. recession effects and exchange rate as well as income growth effects in the long run on the U.S. trade balance of agricultural commodities which mainly consists of bulk products and high-value products. Our results indicate that there is no significant J-curve effect for three cases, while the long-run effect demonstrates that the domestic currency devaluation is positively related with U.S. agricultural trade balance for bulk, high-value and combined agricultural products, though the high-value products appear the more modest effects compared to the other two. In sum, the real trade-weighted exchange rate is found to be the key determinant of U.S. agricultural trade balance in the long-term, rather than domestic or foreign income. We find that the three categories of agricultural products do indeed respond differently to exchange rate and income. For bulk and high-value products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to exchange rate and foreign income, while U.S. imports barely respond. For combined agricultural products, on the other hand, U.S. exports respond greatly to exchange rate, and U.S. imports behave significantly with respect to both of changes in exchange rate and foreign income; besides, the 1980s recession had significant effects on U.S. trade balance while the most recent recession had great impact on U.S. imports, showing the U.S. trade with ROW partners was mainly influenced by the two times economic crisis during our sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Li & Kinnucan, Henry, 2015. "Effects of Recession and Dollar Weakening on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196612, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea15:196612
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.196612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/196612/files/Trade%20Balance_Jan%202015%20by%20Li%20Gong%20and%20Henry%20Kinnucan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.196612?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    3. Chambers, Robert G. & Just, Richard E., 1982. "An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 235-247.
    4. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 213-228, October.
    5. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J-curve revisited," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 65, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Dallas S. Batten & Michael T. Belongia, 1984. "The recent decline in agricultural exports: is the exchange rate the culprit?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Oct), pages 5-14.
    7. Ronald A. Babula & Fred J. Ruppel & David A. Bessler, 1995. "U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 75-88, November.
    8. John C. Robertson & David Orden, 1990. "Monetary Impacts on Prices in the Short and Long Run: Some Evidence from New Zealand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 160-171.
    9. Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
    10. Singh, Tarlok, 2002. "India's trade balance: the role of income and exchange rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 437-452, August.
    11. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    12. S. E. Grigsby & C. A. Arnade, 1986. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Distortions on Grain Export Markets, The Case of Argentina," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 434-440.
    13. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    16. Barichello, Richard R., 2000. "Impact Of The Asian Crisis On Trade Flows: A Focus On Indonesia And Agriculture," Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 1999: Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry 16797, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.
    18. Henry, Guy & Peterson, E. Wesley F. & Bessler, David A. & Farris, Donald, 1993. "A time-series analysis of the effects of government policies on the U.S. beef cattle industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 117-139, April.
    19. Kapombe, Crispin M. & Colyer, Dale, 1999. "A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 295-307, December.
    20. Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2011. "How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 387-403, May.
    21. Unknown, 2000. "Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry," Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 1999: Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry 252446, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    23. Dallas S. Batten & Michael T. Belongia, 1986. "Monetary Policy, Real Exchange Rates, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 422-427.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 141-152, August.
    25. Liefert, William M. & Shane, Mathew, 2009. "The World Economic Crisis and U.S. Agriculture: From Boom to Gloom?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-5.
    26. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The J-curve Effect in Agricultural Commodity Trade: An Empirical Study of South East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 106701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Valdes, Constanza & Hjort, Kim & Seeley, Ralph, 2020. "Brazil's Agricultural Competitiveness: Recent Growth and Future Impacts under Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions," Economic Research Report 327206, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Export diversification and the S-curve effect in a resource-rich state: evidence from Azerbaijan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 135-154, May.
    3. Houssem Eddine Chebbi & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2011. "Agricultural Trade Balance and Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Case of Tunisia," Working Papers 610, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    4. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yomgqing Wang, 2007. "The J‐Curve At The Industry Level: Evidence From Trade Between The Us And Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 315-328, December.
    6. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the J-curve phenomenon," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 213-228, October.
    8. Burakov, D., 2016. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.
    10. M. Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240, December.
    11. Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra, 2019. "Dynamic Perspective of Trade Balance: Evidence from Southeast Asia before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," GATR Journals jber170, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    12. M Bahmani-Oskooee & A Ratha, 2009. "S-Curve Dynamics of Trade: Evidence from US-Canada Commodity Trade," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Crucini, Mario J. & Davis, J. Scott, 2016. "Distribution capital and the short- and long-run import demand elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 203-219.
    14. Nabeela KOUSAR* & Muhammad Rizwan YASEEN** & Imran QAISER***, 2017. "THE S-CURVES DYNAMICS OF TRADE: The Case Study of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 121-138.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
    16. Yi‐Bin Chiu & Chia‐Hung Sun, 2009. "Economic interdependence and bilateral trade imbalance across the Taiwan Strait," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 411-432, September.
    17. Dmitry Burakov, 2016. "Elasticity of Agricultural Prices in Russia: An Empirical Study of Energy and Monetary Channels," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 551-562.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 141-152, August.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2013. "The J-Curve and Japan--China commodity trade," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 13-28, February.
    20. Hussain, M. Ershad & Haque, Mahfuzul, 2014. "Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 231-240.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; Marketing;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:saea15:196612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.