[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ksaesp/118159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expectations of Cattle Feeding Investors in Feeder Cattle Placements

Author

Listed:
  • Kastens, Terry L.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.
Abstract
Cattle feeders appear irrational when they place cattle on feed when projected profits are negative. Long futures positions appear to offer superior returns to cattle feeding investment. Cattle feeder behavior suggests that they believe a downward bias in live cattle futures persists and that cattle feeders use different information than the live cattle futures market price when making placement decisions. This paper examines feeder cattle placement determinants and compares performance of expected hedgeable profits with past actual profits in explaining feeder cattle' placements. Past actual profits are found to be more important placement determinants than expected profits based upon the live cattle futures market, even though hedgeable profits provide superior forecasts of future profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1993. "Expectations of Cattle Feeding Investors in Feeder Cattle Placements," Staff Papers 118159, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ksaesp:118159
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.118159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/118159/files/94-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.118159?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brorsen, B. Wade & Coulibaly, Nouhoun & Richter, Francisca G.-C. & Bailey, DeeVon, 2001. "Feeder Cattle Price Slides," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Bruce L. Gardner, 1976. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 81-84.
    3. Darwin M. Pluhar & Carl E. Shafer & Thomas L. Sporleder, 1985. "The systematic downward bias in live cattle futures: A further evaluation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 11-20, March.
    4. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    5. James S. Eales & Brian K. Engel & Robert J. Hauser & Sarahelen R. Thompson, 1990. "Grain Price Expectations of Illinois Farmers and Grain Merchandisers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 701-708.
    6. Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    7. Bradshaw, Girard W. & Orden, David, 1990. "Granger Causality From The Exchange Rate To Agricultural Prices And Export Sales," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, July.
    8. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Hughes, Matthew W., 1992. "Livestock Futures Markets And Rational Price Formation: Evidence For live Cattle And Live Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 233-249, July.
    9. Raymond M. Leuthold & Peter A. Hartmann, 1979. "A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 482-489.
    10. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Goodwin, Barry K., 1992. "Forecasting Cattle Prices in the Presence of Structural Change," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 11-22, December.
    13. Shonkwiler, John Scott, 1986. "Are Livestock Futures Prices Rational Forecasts?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6, December.
    14. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency Of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis Of Previous Research Results," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, July.
    15. Emmett Elam & Chaw Wayoopagtr, 1992. "A reexamination of the systematic downward bias in live cattle futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 329-338, June.
    16. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Hughes, Matthew W., 1992. "Livestock Futures Markets And Rational Price Formation: Evidence For Live Cattle And Live Hogs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-17, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1994. "Cattle Feeder Behavior And Feeder Cattle Placements," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Kastens, Terry L. & Jones, Rodney D. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1998. "Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    8. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, July.
    9. Choi, Jung-Sup & Helmberger, Peter G., 1993. "Acreage Response, Expected Price Functions, And Endogenous Price Expectations," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-10, July.
    10. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A., 1991. "The Role of Futures in Daily Forward Pricing," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis of Previous Research Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 119-130, July.
    12. Shonkwiler, John Scott, 1986. "Are Livestock Futures Prices Rational Forecasts?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6, December.
    13. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    14. repec:ags:vtaesp:232463 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nyankori, James Cyprian Okuk & Hammig, Michael D., 1983. "Empirical Evaluation of the Relative Forecasting Performances of Fixed and Varying Coefficient Demand Models," Working Papers 117654, Clemson University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    16. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    17. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    18. Gordon, J. Douglas, 1985. "The Distribution of Daily Changes in Commodity Futures Prices," Technical Bulletins 156817, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Elam, Emmett W. & Holder, Shelby H., 1985. "An Evaluation Of The Rice Outlook And Situation Price Forecasts," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-7, December.
    20. Kauffman, Daniel, 1984. "An Evaluation of the Potential for a Market in Hog Contracts," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201342, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    21. Brorsen, B. Wade & Bailey, DeeVon & Richardson, James W., 1984. "Investigation Of Price Discovery And Efficiency For Cash And Futures Cotton Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ksaesp:118159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/daksuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.