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War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind the Conflicts

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  • González-Val, Rafael
Abstract
This paper analyses the statistical distribution of war size. We find strong support for a Pareto-type distribution (power law) using data from different sources (COW and UCDP) and periods. A power law describes accurately the size distribution of all wars, but also the distribution of the sample of wars in any given period. The estimated Pareto exponent is always less than 1, indicating that the distribution is heavy-tailed; this means that the war average loss is controlled by the largest conflicts. Furthermore, the study of battle deaths’growth rates reveals a clear decreasing pattern; the growth of deaths declines faster the greater the number of initial deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • González-Val, Rafael, 2014. "War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind the Conflicts," Economy and Society 190625, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemso:190625
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.190625
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/190625/files/NDL2014-098.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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