[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemie/44425.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Cattaneo, Cristina
  • Manera, Matteo
  • Scarpa, Elisa
Abstract
In recent years, concerns regarding the environmental implications of the rising coal demand have induced considerable efforts to generate long-term forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, none of the previous empirical studies on energy demand for China has tackled the issue of modelling coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap. In particular, we model and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using time series data disaggregated by provinces. Moreover, not only does our analysis account for heterogeneity among provinces, but also, given the nature of the data, it captures the presence of spatial autocorrelation among provinces using a spatial econometric model. A fixed effects spatial lag model and a fixed effects spatial error model are estimated to describe and forecast industrial coal demand. Our empirical results show that the fixed effect spatial lag model better captures the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of 4 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Cattaneo, Cristina & Manera, Matteo & Scarpa, Elisa, 2008. "Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis," International Energy Markets Working Papers 44425, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemie:44425
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.44425
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/44425/files/8-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.44425?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    2. Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March.
    3. Shiu, Alice & Lam, Pun-Lee, 2004. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 47-54, January.
    4. Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
    5. Liu, Na & Ang, B.W., 2007. "Factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry: Energy intensity versus product mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 609-635, July.
    6. Sinton, Jonathan E., 2001. "Accuracy and reliability of China's energy statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 373-383.
    7. Sandy Dall'erba & Julie Le Gallo, 2008. "Regional convergence and the impact of European structural funds over 1989–1999: A spatial econometric analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 219-244, June.
    8. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
    9. Jørgen Lauridsen, 2006. "Spatial autoregressively distributed lag models: equivalent forms, estimation, and an illustrative commuting model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(2), pages 297-311, June.
    10. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2004. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 13, pages 283-295, Springer.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    12. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2008. "China's energy economy: Technical change, factor demand and interfactor/interfuel substitution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2167-2183, September.
    13. Richard F. Garbaccio & Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1999. "Why Has the Energy-Output Ratio Fallen in China?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 20(3), pages 63-91, July.
    14. Bernard Fingleton & Julie Le Gallo, 2008. "Estimating spatial models with endogenous variables, a spatial lag and spatially dependent disturbances: Finite sample properties," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(3), pages 319-339, August.
    15. Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
    16. Reister, David B., 1987. "The link between energy and GDP in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 427-433.
    17. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Urban Concentration: The Role of Increasing Returns and Transport Costs," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 19(1-2), pages 5-30, April.
    18. Jian, Tianlun & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1996. "Trends in regional inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    19. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Can China contribute more to the fight against global warming?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 837-846, November.
    20. Julie Le Gallo & Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Estimating spatial models with endogenous variables, a spatial lag and spatially dependent disturbances : finite sample properties," Post-Print hal-00485035, HAL.
    21. Yuan, Jiahai & Zhao, Changhong & Yu, Shunkun & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: Cointegration and co-feature analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1179-1191, November.
    22. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 50-65, January.
    23. Mr. Jahangir Aziz & Mr. Christoph Duenwald, 2001. "China's Provincial Growth Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2001/003, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Badi Baltagi & Dong Li, 2006. "Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: the Case of Liquor," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 175-185.
    25. Jahangir Aziz & Christoph Duenwald, 2001. "China's Provincial Growth Dynamics," Development and Comp Systems 0012004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
    27. Chuanlong Tang & Sumner J. La Croix, 1993. "Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 21-36.
    28. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
    29. Jan K. Brueckner, 2003. "Strategic Interaction Among Governments: An Overview of Empirical Studies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 175-188, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burke, Paul J. & Liao, Hua, 2015. "Is the price elasticity of demand for coal in China increasing?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 309-322.
    2. Teng, Meixuan & Burke, Paul J. & Liao, Hua, 2019. "The demand for coal among China's rural households: Estimates of price and income elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 928-936.
    3. Bahadori, Alireza & Vuthaluru, Hari B., 2010. "Estimation of potential savings from reducing unburned combustible losses in coal-fired systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 3792-3799, December.
    4. Zheng Zheng Li & Chi-Wei Su, 2023. "How does real estate market react to the iron ore boom in Australian capital cities?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(2), pages 517-537, October.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging potential of coal and iron ore in Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.
    7. Lei Jiang & Ling Bai, 2017. "Revisiting the Granger Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Multi-Timescale Decomposition Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Li, Bing-Bing & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Wang, Jin-Cheng, 2015. "A comparative study on prediction methods for China's medium- and long-term coal demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1671-1683.
    9. Zhang, Kun & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the green paradox in China: From the perspective of fiscal decentralization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 203-211.
    10. Sun, Sizhong & Anwar, Sajid, 2015. "R&D status and the performance of domestic firms in China's coal mining industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 99-103.
    11. Shudong Wang & Qinfeng Xing & Xiangqian Wang & Qian Wu, 2023. "Demand forecasting model of coal logistics based on drosophila-grey neural network," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(2), pages 807-815, April.
    12. You, Jing, 2013. "China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 652-668.
    13. Xin, Haihui & Tian, Wenjiang & Zhou, Banghao & Qi, Xu-yao & Li, Jianfeng & Wu, Jinfeng & Wang, De-ming, 2023. "Pore structure evolution and oxidation characteristic change of coal treated with liquid carbon dioxide and liquid nitrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    14. Fang, Zheng & Chen, Yang, 2017. "Human capital and energy in economic growth – Evidence from Chinese provincial data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 340-358.
    15. Lei Jiang & Henk Folmer & Minhe Ji & Jianjun Tang, 2017. "Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(2), pages 301-319, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2010. "China's energy economy: A survey of the literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 105-132, June.
    2. Fang, Zheng & Chen, Yang, 2017. "Human capital and energy in economic growth – Evidence from Chinese provincial data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 340-358.
    3. Jin Zhang & David C. Broadstock, 2016. "The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for China in a Time-varying Framework," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1_suppl), pages 29-54, January.
    4. Fang, Zheng & Chen, Yang, 2017. "Human capital, energy, and economic development – Evidence from Chinese provincial data," RIEI Working Papers 2017-03, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration.
    5. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2009. "Gradual reforms and the emergence of energy market in China: Evidence from tests for convergence of energy prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4834-4850, November.
    6. Akkemik, K. Ali & Göksal, Koray & Li, Jia, 2012. "Energy consumption and income in Chinese provinces: Heterogeneous panel causality analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 445-454.
    7. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John, 2009. "Substitution possibilities and determinants of energy intensity for China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1793-1804, May.
    8. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    9. Zheng Fang & Marcin Wolski, 2021. "Human capital, energy and economic growth in China: evidence from multivariate nonlinear Granger causality tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 607-632, February.
    10. Shyh-Wei Chen & Zixiong Xie & Ying Liao, 2018. "Energy consumption promotes economic growth or economic growth causes energy use in China? A panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1019-1043, November.
    11. You, Jing, 2013. "China's challenge for decarbonized growth: Forecasts from energy demand models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 652-668.
    12. Wang, Yuan & Wang, Yichen & Zhou, Jing & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A multivariate causality test," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4399-4406, July.
    13. Wang, Chengjin & Ducruet, César, 2014. "Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 3-16.
    14. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    15. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Nickolaos, 2011. "The effect of energy consumption on countries’ economic efficiency: a conditional robust non parametric approach," MPRA Paper 28692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ma, Hengyun & Oxley, Les & Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2008. "China's energy economy: Technical change, factor demand and interfactor/interfuel substitution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2167-2183, September.
    17. Talha Yalta, A. & Cakar, Hatice, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A reconciliation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 666-675.
    18. Zhang, Wei & Yang, Shuyun, 2013. "The influence of energy consumption of China on its real GDP from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 76-81.
    19. repec:asg:wpaper:1013 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Li, Raymond & Leung, Guy C.K., 2012. "Coal consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 438-443.
    21. Sheng, Yu & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Dandan, 2014. "Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 31-39.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemie:44425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.