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Economic Dynamics, Emission Trends and the EKC Hypothesis New Evidence Using NAMEA and Provincial Panel Data for Italy

Author

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  • Mazzanti, Massimiliano
  • Montini, Anna
  • Zoboli, Roberto
Abstract
This paper provides new empirical evidence on delinking trends concerning emission-related indicators in Italy. We discuss methodological issues regarding the analysis of delinking and examine the related Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) literature to explore and assess the most value added research lines after more than a decade of intensive research in the field. The main contribution of the paper is in providing EKC evidence exploiting environmental-economic merged panel datasets at a decentralized level exploiting long time series and rich cross section heterogeneity at both sectoral and provincial level. This crucially augments the unsatisfactory outcomes deriving from cross country analyses, which are less informative for policy purposes since they provide averages for environmental-economic relationships. Two panel datasets: 1990-2000 emissions at province level; and sectoral disaggregated NAMEA emissions sources for 1990-2001 are analyzed. We find mixed evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. Some of the pollutants in the NAMEA data, such as CO2, CH4 and CO, produce inverted-U shaped curves with coherent within range turning points. Other emission trends for the period under consideration show monotonic or even N shaped (SOX, NOX, PM10) relationship. Other emissions show relatively less robust results, with mixed evidence arising from different specifications. This partially confirms some of the criticisms directed to EKC empirical investigations. However, our analysis shows that probably there is no single EKC dynamic, but rather many EKC dynamics, differing depending on (i) period of observation; (ii) country/area; (iii) emissions/environmental pressures; (iv) sectors. Sectoral disaggregated analysis highlights that an aggregated outcome should hide some heterogeneity across different sectors. Services tend to present an inverted-N shape in most cases. Manufacturing industry shows a mix of EKC inverted- U and N shapes, depending on the emission considered. The same is true for industry (all industries, not only manufacturing): though a turning point has been experienced, N shapes may lead to increased emissions with respect to very high levels of the income driver. The analysis of provincial data shows that inverted-U shaped curves are present for some of the emissions in the SINAnet- APAT database, such as CH4, NMVOC, CO and PM10, with coherent within range turning points. Other emission trends show a monotonic relationship (CO2 and N2O), or in some cases an inverted-N shaped relationship (SOX and NOX). This kind of analysis at macro sector and/or specific sector level appear to be the most promising and robust field of future research for the assessment of EKC dynamics. National studies grounded in geographical heterogeneity, rather than regional/international analysis, and focused on sectoral trends, are more informative for policy making. The implementation of such investigations needs larger datasets than are currently available. We thus point to the need for increasing and continual effort on constructing integrated environmental/economic statistical accounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Montini, Anna & Zoboli, Roberto, 2007. "Economic Dynamics, Emission Trends and the EKC Hypothesis New Evidence Using NAMEA and Provincial Panel Data for Italy," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 10261, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcc:10261
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.10261
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    6. Silvia CODERONI & Roberto ESPOSTI, 2011. "Is there a Long-Term Relationship between Agricultural GHG Emissions and Productivity Growth? The Case of Italian Agriculture," Working Papers 369, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Sweety Pandey & Mrutyunjaya Mishra, 2021. "Investigating Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Panel Data Analysis for India," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 26(2), pages 137-152, December.
    8. Ghisetti, Claudia & Quatraro, Francesco, 2014. "Is green Knowledge improving Environmental Productivity? Sectoral Evidence from Italian Regions," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201411, University of Turin.
    9. Mihaela Simionescu & Adam Wojciechowski & Arkadiusz Tomczyk & Marcin Rabe, 2021. "Revised Environmental Kuznets Curve for V4 Countries and Baltic States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, June.
    10. David Grover, 2012. "Knowledge versus technique in SO2-saving technological change: A comparative test using quantile regression with implications for greenhouse gas compliance," GRI Working Papers 99, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    11. Costantini, Valeria & Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Montini, Anna, 2013. "Environmental performance, innovation and spillovers. Evidence from a regional NAMEA," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 101-114.
    12. Moutinho, Victor & Varum, Celeste & Madaleno, Mara, 2017. "How economic growth affects emissions? An investigation of the environmental Kuznets curve in Portuguese and Spanish economic activity sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 326-344.
    13. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00860045 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Anna Montini & Roberto Zoboli, 2008. "Environmental Kuznets Curves for Air Pollutant Emissions in Italy: Evidence from Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) Panel Data," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 277-301.
    15. Ghisetti, Claudia & Quatraro, Francesco, 2013. "Beyond inducement in climate change: Does environmental performance spur environmental technologies? A regional analysis of cross-sectoral differences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 99-113.
    16. Wakimin, Nur Fadzlunnisaa & Azlina, A.A. & Samsudin, Hazman & Kamaludin, Mahirah, 2019. "The Impact of Tourism Demand, Government Expenditure on Education and Income on the Environment in ASEAN-5 Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(3), pages 75-90.
    17. Coderoni, Silvia & Esposti, Roberto, 2011. "Long-Term Agricultural GHG Emissions and Economic Growth: The Agricultural Environmental Kuznets Curve across Italian Regions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114426, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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