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Sectoral and welfare effects of the global economic crisis on Uganda: a recursive dynamic CGE analysis

Author

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  • Twimukye, Evarist P.
  • Matovu, John Mary
  • Levine, Sebastian
  • Birungi, Patrick
Abstract
This paper analyses the impact of the global economic and financial crisis on Uganda notably on macro-economic aggregates, sectoral output and household welfare, and the potential role of fiscal policy and reform in mitigating the impacts. We find that second round effects from a reduction in financial inflows such as remittances, foreign direct investments and overseas development assistance, as well as reduction in international demand from cash crops such as cotton, tea and coffee, could lead to a reduction in economic growth by 0.6 percentage points on average annually over the period 2008- 2010 compared to a baseline reflecting pre-crisis conditions. A surge in regional exports and early counter-cyclical policies in particular are found to dampen the most adverse impacts of the crisis. The paper also shows that the impact of the government’s expansionary 2009/2010 budget could return growth to pre-crisis levels and illustrates how a re-prioritization of government expenditure away from expenditure on administration to more productive sectors of the economy, combined with reforms to improve the efficiency of public spending, could lift long-term growth and reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, even more.

Suggested Citation

  • Twimukye, Evarist P. & Matovu, John Mary & Levine, Sebastian & Birungi, Patrick, 2010. "Sectoral and welfare effects of the global economic crisis on Uganda: a recursive dynamic CGE analysis," Research Series 113619, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eprcrs:113619
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.113619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kappel, Robert & Lay, Jann & Steiner, Susan, 2005. "Uganda: No more pro-poor growth?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 31, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    3. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Financing Uganda'S Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?," IMF Working Papers 2004/170, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ssewanyana, Sarah N. & Okidi, John A., 2007. "Poverty estimates from Uganda National Household Survey III, 2005/2006," Occasional Papers 54710, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    5. H. Issa & B. Ouattara, 2008. "Foreign Aid Flows And Real Exchange Rate: Evidence From Syria," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 133-146, June.
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    7. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery : Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 1. Summary and Recommendations," World Bank Publications - Reports 7576, The World Bank Group.
    8. repec:zbw:ifwkie:3715 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Buyinza, Faisal, 2011. "Performance and Survival of Ugandan Manufacturing firms in the context of the East African Community," Research Series 150477, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).
    2. Wiebelt, Manfred & Pauw, Karl & Matovu, John Mary & Twimukye, Evarist & Benson, Todd, 2011. "Managing future oil revenues in Uganda for agricultural development and poverty reduction: A CGE analysis of challenges and options," Kiel Working Papers 1696, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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