[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/gewi10/93958.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effekte Einer Eu-Agrarmarktliberalisierung Auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen Anhand Eines Europäischen Agrarsektormodells Und Eines Angebotsmodells Für Den Deutschen Agrarsektor

Author

Listed:
  • Deppermann, Andre
  • Grethe, Harald
  • Offermann, Frank
Abstract
Analysen der Politikfolgeabschätzung stoßen häufig auf großes politisches und öffentliches Interesse und sind zugleich eine wissenschaftliche Herausforderung. Der Einsatz einzelner Modelle zur Politikfolgenabschätzung stößt oft dann an seine Grenzen, wenn wechselseitige Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Aggregationsebenen Gegenstand der Betrachtung sind. In diesem Beitrag entwickeln wir eine konsistente Schnittstelle zwischen dem europäischen Agrarsektormodell ESIM (European Simulation Model) und dem Angebotsmodell für den deutschen Agrarsektor FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System). Die Kopplung wird durch einen Iterationsprozess vorgenommen, der konsistente Ergebnisse der beiden Modelle sicherstellt. Vorausgehend wird eine detaillierte Analyse der unabhängig voneinander erzeugten Modellergebnisse durchgeführt. Ziel dabei ist es, einen möglichst hohen Grad an Analogie in den Modellreaktionen zu erreichen, gleichzeitig Unterschiede zu reflektieren und diese, wenn möglich, anzugleichen. Im Vergleich zu einem gemeinsamen Referenzszenario werden verschiedene Liberalisierungsszenarien insbesondere bezüglich der Auswirkungen auf die Einkommensverteilung deutscher Landwirte ausgewertet. In Bezug auf die Ergebnisse der gemeinsamen Szenarien kann geschlussfolgert werden, dass der Iterationsprozess nicht für alle Produkte von gleicher Bedeutung ist. Rückkopplungen ergeben sich in der Hauptsache für nicht handelbare Produkte und solche Produkte, für die der analysierte Mitgliedstaat ein großes Land ist und Mengenänderungen folglich Preisänderungen nach sich ziehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Deppermann, Andre & Grethe, Harald & Offermann, Frank, 2010. "Effekte Einer Eu-Agrarmarktliberalisierung Auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen Anhand Eines Europäischen Agrarsektormodells Und Eines Angebotsmodells Für Den Deutschen Agrarsektor," 50th Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93958, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi10:93958
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.93958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/93958/files/C3_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.93958?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brockmeier, Martina & Kleinhanss, Werner & Offermann, Frank, 2008. "The challenges of model based policy advice," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-5.
    2. Offermann, Frank, 2008. "Key issues of linking models for policy impact assessment in agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-2.
    3. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Böhringer, Christoph, 2006. "Combining Top-Down and Bottom-up in Energy Policy Analysis: A Decomposition Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-007, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Buti,Marco & Deroose,Servaas & Gaspar,Vitor & Martins,João Nogueira (ed.), 2010. "The Euro," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9789279098420, September.
    5. Grant, Jason H. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2006. "Extending General Equilibrium to the Tariff Line: U.S. Dairy in the Doha Development Agenda," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21409, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Kuhlman, Tom & van Tongeren, Frank W. & Helming, John F.M. & Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Gaaff, Aris & Groeneveld, Rolf A. & Koole, Boudewijn & Verhoog, A. David & Dekkers, Jasper, 2006. "Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 55(05-06), pages 1-10.
    7. Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald, 2006. "Using the Logistic Functional Form for Modelling International Price Transmission in Net Trade Simulation Models," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25344, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Britz, Wolfgang, 2008. "Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cassoni, Adriana & Flores, Manuel, 2008. "Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities," Conference papers 331813, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Grant, Jason H. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2006. "Extending General Equilibrium to the Tariff Line: U.S. Dairy in the DOHA Development Agenda," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25305, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Gustav A. Horn & Fabian Lindner & Silke Tober & Andrew Watt, 2012. "Where now for the euro area crisis? Interim assessment and a model for a stable euro area," IMK Report 75e-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Ramos, Maria Priscila & Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "Shipping the good beef out: EU trade liberalization to Mercosur exports," Working Papers 7215, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
    5. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Peragine, Vito, 2015. "Equality of Opportunity: Theory and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 8994, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/gmkj8k1vf8tpbdue5q2emsepp is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Susana Silva & Isabel Soares & Óscar Afonso, 2010. "E3 Models Revisited," FEP Working Papers 393, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. Clark, Andrew E. & Senik, Claudia & Yamada, Katsunori, 2017. "When experienced and decision utility concur: The case of income comparisons," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    10. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    11. Narayanan, Badri G. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Horridge, J. Mark, 2010. "Disaggregated data and trade policy analysis: The value of linking partial and general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 755-766, May.
    12. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Growth in Transition: A Meta-Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1057, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2013/08, Czech National Bank.
    14. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
    15. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2014. "Austerity, Growth and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13, January.
    16. Sieds, 2011. "Complete Volume LXV n.1 2011," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 65(1), pages 1-181.
    17. Alexander W. Cappelen & Rune Jansen Hagen & Erik Ø. Sørensen & Bertil Tungodden, 2014. "Do Non-Enforceable Contracts Matter? Evidence from an International Lab Experiment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(1), pages 100-113, March.
    18. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0h0g8tgo is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Andreas PEICHL, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," EcoMod2008 23800106, EcoMod.
    20. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2016. "Why does the Euro fail? The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 543-554.
    21. Vito Peragine, 2011. "Review of “Measuring inequality of opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean” by Ricardo Paes de Barros, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, José R. Molinas Vega, and Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi , World Bank," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(1), pages 137-143, March.
    22. Joecila Silva & Stéphane Calmant & Frédérique Seyler & Daniel Moreira & Daniel Oliveira & Achiles Monteiro, 2014. "Radar Altimetry Aids Managing Gauge Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 587-603, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gewi10:93958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gewisea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.