[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aesc15/204234.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Movers and Stayers in the Farming Sector: Accounting for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Structural Change

Author

Listed:
  • Saint-Cyr, Legrand D.F.
  • Piet, Laurent
Abstract
The Markov chain model (MCM) has become a popular tool in the agricultural economics literature to describe how farms experience structural change and to study the impact of various drivers of this process, including public support. Even though some studies have accounted for heterogeneity across farms by letting transition probabilities depend on co- variates depicting farms and/or farmers' characteristics, only observed heterogeneity has been considered so far. Assuming that structural change may also relate to unobserved farms and/or farmers' characteristics, we present how to implement the mover-stayer model (MSM) which considers a mixture of two types of farms, the `stayers' who always remain in their initial size category and the `movers' who follow a first-order Markovian process, and how to estimate it thanks to the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. This modeling framework relaxes the assumption of homogeneity in the transition process which grounds the usual MCM. An empirical application to a panel of French farms over 2000-2013 shows that the MSM outperforms the MCM in recovering the underlying year-to-year transition process as well as in deriving the long-run transition matrix and forecasting future farm size distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Saint-Cyr, Legrand D.F. & Piet, Laurent, 2015. "Movers and Stayers in the Farming Sector: Accounting for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Structural Change," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204234, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc15:204234
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.204234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/204234/files/Legrand%20D.%20F._Saint-Cyr_SaintCyr-Piet_AES_2015%20_1_.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.204234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Zimmermann & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Structural Change of European Dairy Farms – A Cross-Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 576-603, September.
    2. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 357-373, October.
    3. Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei & Ron C. Mittelhammer, 2016. "Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(2), pages 303-329.
    4. Frydman, Halina & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Credit rating dynamics and Markov mixture models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1062-1075, June.
    5. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
    6. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    7. M. C. Hallberg, 1969. "Projecting the Size Distribution of Agricultural Firms—An Application of a Markov Process with Non-Stationary Transition Probabilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 289-302.
    8. Christoph R. Weiss, 1999. "Farm Growth and Survival: Econometric Evidence for Individual Farms in Upper Austria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 103-116.
    9. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Halina Frydman & Jarl G. Kallberg & Duen-Li Kao, 1985. "Testing the Adequacy of Markov Chain and Mover-Stayer Models as Representations of Credit Behavior," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 1203-1214, December.
    11. T. C. Lee & G. G. Judge & T. Takayama, 1965. "On Estimating the Transition Probabilities of a Markov Process," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 742-762.
    12. Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka, 2003. "Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 697-723.
    13. Timothy M. Morgan & Carol S. Aneshensel & Virginia A. Clark, 1983. "Parameter Estimation for Mover-Stayer Models," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 11(3), pages 345-366, February.
    14. Shorrocks, A F, 1976. "Income Mobility and the Markov Assumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 566-578, September.
    15. Jayasri Dutta & J. A. Sefton & M. R. WEALE, 2001. "Income distribution and income dynamics in the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 599-617.
    16. Stavins, R. N. & Stanton, B. F., 1980. "Alternative Procedures For Estimating The Size Distribution Of Farms," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-6, October.
    17. MacRae, Elizabeth Chase, 1977. "Estimation of Time-Varying Markov Processes with Aggregate Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 183-198, January.
    18. Stavins, R. N. & Stanton, B. F., 1980. "Alternative Procedures For Estimating The Size Distribution Of Farms," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-6, October.
    19. Frydman, Halina, 2005. "Estimation in the Mixture of Markov Chains Moving With Different Speeds," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1046-1053, September.
    20. Silke Huettel & Roel Jongeneel, 2011. "How has the EU milk quota affected patterns of herd-size change?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 38(4), pages 497-527, October.
    21. Lydia Zepeda, 1995. "Asymmetry and Nonstationarity in the Farm Size Distribution of Wisconsin Milk Producers: An Aggregate Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(4), pages 837-852.
    22. Jean-Pierre Butault & Nathalie Delame, 2005. "Concentration de la production agricole et croissance des exploitations," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 390(1), pages 47-64.
    23. Bickenbach, Frank & Bode, Eckhardt, 2001. "Markov or not Markov - this should be a question," Kiel Working Papers 1086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aderajew, Tamirat S. & Du, Xiaoxue & Pennings, Joost M. E. & Trujillo-Barrera, Andres, 2020. "Farm-Level Risk-Balancing Behavior and the Role of Latent Heterogeneity," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(2), March.
    2. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    3. Laurent, Piet & Legrand D.F. Saint-Cyr, 2016. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025," Working Papers SMART 16-11, INRAE UMR SMART.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Accounting for farm heterogeneity in the assessment of agricultural policy impacts on structural change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F. & Piet, Laurent, 2014. "Movers and Stayers in the Farming Sector: Another Look at Heterogeneity in Structural Change," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183068, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    4. Piet, Laurent & Saint-Cyr, Legrand D.F., 2016. "Projection de la population des exploitations agricoles françaises à l’horizon 2025," Working Papers 250208, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    5. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Farm segmentation and agricultural policy impacts on structural change: evidence from France," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244789, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    8. Legrand D. F. Saint‐Cyr, 2022. "Heterogeneous farm‐size dynamics and impacts of subsidies from agricultural policy: Evidence from France," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 893-923, September.
    9. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Madior Fall & Laurent Piet & Muriel Roger, 2010. "Trends in the French commercial farm population," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(3), pages 279-295.
    11. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71.
    12. Piet, Laurent, 2011. "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei & Ron C. Mittelhammer, 2016. "Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 43(2), pages 303-329.
    14. Marie Dervillé & Gilles Allaire & Élise Maigné & Éric Cahuzac, 2017. "Internal and contextual drivers of dairy restructuring: evidence from French mountainous areas and post†quota prospects," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 91-103, January.
    15. Neuenfeldt, S. & Rieger, J. & Heckelei, T. & Gocht, A. & Ciaian, P. & Tetteh, G., 2018. "A multiplicative competitive interaction model to explain structural change along farm specialisation, size and exit/entry using Norwegian farm census data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277090, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Niskanen, Olli & Iho, Antti & Kalliovirta, Leena, 2020. "Scenario for structural development of livestock production in the Baltic littoral countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    17. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    18. Karantininis, Kostas, 2002. "Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
    19. Jeffrey M. Gillespie & Joan R. Fulton, 2001. "A Markov chain analysis of the size of hog production firms in the United States," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 557-570.
    20. Alexander Zorn & Franziska Zimmert, 2022. "Structural change in the dairy sector: exit from farming and farm type change," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Farm Management;

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aesc15:204234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aesukea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.