[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea07/9910.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting Supply and Demand for Land in the Long Run

Author

Listed:
  • Golub, Alla A.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Sohngen, Brent
Abstract
The goal of this work is to investigate land-use change at the global scale over the long run - particularly in the context of analyzing the fundamental drivers behind land-use related GHG emissions. For this purpose, we identify the most important drivers of supply and demand for land. On the demand side, we begin with a dynamic general equilibrium (GE) model that predicts economic growth in each region of the world, based on exogenous projections of population, skilled and unskilled labor and technical change. Economy-wide growth is, in turn, translated into consumer demand for specific products using an econometrically estimated, international cross-section, demand system that permits us to predict the pattern of future consumer demands across the development spectrum. This is particularly important in the fast-growing, developing countries, where the composition of consumer demand is changing rapidly. These countries also account for an increasing share of global economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Consumer demand is translated into derived demands for land through a set of sectoral production functions that differentiate the demand for land by Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ). The paper devotes considerable attention to modeling the supply of land to different land-using activities in the economy. In order to represent the competition for land among different sectors in the model, we disaggregated the land endowment in each region into Agro-Ecological Zones, drawing on the data base of Lee et al. (2005), to reflect the fact that land is heterogeneous endowment. To further restrict land mobility across uses, land supply within an AEZ is constrained via a nested Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) frontier. In the nested structure, land owner of particular type of land (AEZ) first decides on the allocation of land between agriculture and forestry to maximize the total returns from land. Then, based on the relative returns to land in crop and livestock production, the land owner decides on the allocation of land between these two broad types of agricultural activities. A soft link between our GE model and an intertemporal forestry model is included for better representation of forestry sector in GE model. To reflect the real world fact that deforestation represents an important source of land supply in the face of high demand, we also introduce the possibility of conversion of unmanaged forest land to land used in production. This is treated as an investment decision whereby new land is accessed only when present value of returns on land in a given region is high enough to cover the costs of accessing the new land. In equilibrium, the supply of land to each land-using activity adjusts to meet the derived demand for land. A set of projections for the long run supply and demand for land obtained with this model is a useful input to improving our understanding of land-related GHG emissions in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Golub, Alla A. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Sohngen, Brent, 2007. "Projecting Supply and Demand for Land in the Long Run," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9910, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9910
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9910
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/9910/files/sp07go04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.9910?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haddad, Salwa & Escobar, Neus & Bruckner, Martin & Britz, Wolfgang, 2022. "Promoting extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change," Discussion Papers 324710, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Alleyne, Dillon & Gomes, Charmaine & Hutchinson, Sharon & Phillips, Willard, 2013. "An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38278, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38587, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38566, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land Economics/Use;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9910. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.