[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aawewp/37297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predicting the quality and prices of Bordeaux wines

Author

Listed:
  • Ashenfelter, Orley
Abstract
Bordeaux wines have been made in much the same way for centuries. This article shows that the variability in the quality and prices of Bordeaux vintages is predicted by the weather that created the grapes. The price equation provides a measure of the real rate of return to holding wines (about 2–3% per annum) and implies far greater variability in the early or ‘en primeur’ wine prices than is observed. The analysis provides a useful basis for assessing market inefficiency, the effect of climate change on the wine industry and the role of expert opinion in determining wine prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashenfelter, Orley, 2007. "Predicting the quality and prices of Bordeaux wines," Working Papers 37297, American Association of Wine Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37297
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37297/files/AAWE_WP04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.37297?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2006. "Spatial Variations in Weather Conditions and Wine Prices in Bordeaux," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 114-124, October.
    2. Ali, Héla Hadj & Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2010. "The Impact of Gurus: Parker Grades and en primeur Wine Prices," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 22-39, April.
    3. Jones, Gregory V. & Storchmann, Karl-Heinz, 2001. "Wine market prices and investment under uncertainty: an econometric model for Bordeaux Crus Classes," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 115-133, November.
    4. Danielle Wood & Kym Anderson, 2019. "What Determines the Future Value of an Icon Wine? New Evidence from Australia," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 11, pages 255-282, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. John W. Haeger & Karl Storchmann, 2006. "Prices of American Pinot Noir wines: climate, craftsmanship, critics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 67-78, July.
    6. R.P. Byron & O. Ashenfelter, 1995. "Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(1), pages 40-53, March.
    7. repec:bla:ecorec:v:71:y:1995:i:212:p:40-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Combris, Pierre & Lecocq, Sebastien & Visser, Michael, 1997. "Estimation for a Hedonic Price Equation for Bordeaux Wine: Does Quality Matter?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 390-402, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mert Hakan Hekimoğlu & Burak Kazaz, 2020. "Analytics for Wine Futures: Realistic Prices," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2096-2120, September.
    2. repec:ags:ijag24:347275 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Storchmann, K., 2011. "Wine Economics: Emergence, Developments, Topics," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 50(3), September.
    4. Mert Hakan Hekimoğlu & Burak Kazaz & Scott Webster, 2017. "Wine Analytics: Fine Wine Pricing and Selection Under Weather and Market Uncertainty," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 202-215, May.
    5. Ashenfelter, Orley & Storchmann, Karl, 2014. "Wine and Climate Change," Working Papers 164854, American Association of Wine Economists.
    6. Fur, Eric Le, 2021. "Fine Wines in a Diversified Portfolio of Collectibles," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315852, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Menival, David & Charters, Steve, 2014. "The impact of geographic reputation on the value created in Champagne," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(2), April.
    8. Antonis Michis & Anna Markidou, 2013. "Determinants of retail wine prices: evidence from Cyprus," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 267-280, August.
    9. Ali, Héla Hadj & Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2010. "The Impact of Gurus: Parker Grades and en primeur Wine Prices," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 22-39, April.
    10. Ashenfelter, Orley, 2017. "The Hedonic Approach to Vineyard Site Selection: Adaptation to Climate Change and Grape Growing in Emerging Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 3-15, February.
    11. Amogh Prakasha Kumar & Richard Watt & Laura Meriluoto, 2021. "New Evidence on Using Expert Ratings to Proxy for Wine Quality in Climate Change Research," Working Papers in Economics 21/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    12. Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010. "Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, August.
    13. Limor Dina Gonen & Tchai Tavor & Uriel Spiegel, 2021. "The Positive Effect of Aging in the Case of Wine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Chen, Kuan-Ju & McCluskey, Jill J., 2018. "Impacts of Expert Information on Prices for an Experience Good across Product Segments: Tasting Notes andWine Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(3), September.
    15. Omamuyovwi Gbejewoh & Saskia Keesstra & Erna Blancquaert, 2021. "The 3Ps (Profit, Planet, and People) of Sustainability amidst Climate Change: A South African Grape and Wine Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, March.
    16. Samitas, Aristeidis & Papathanasiou, Spyros & Koutsokostas, Drosos & Kampouris, Elias, 2022. "Volatility spillovers between fine wine and major global markets during COVID-19: A portfolio hedging strategy for investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 629-642.
    17. Corsi, Alessandro & Strøm, Steinar, 2013. "The Price Premium for Organic Wines: Estimating a Hedonic Farm-Gate Price Equation," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 29-48, May.
    18. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Analyzing the risks of an illiquid and global asset: The case of fine wine," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-25.
    19. De Salvo, Maria & Begalli, Diego & Capitello, Roberta & Signorello, Giovanni, 2015. "A spatial micro-econometric approach to estimating climate change impacts on wine firm performance: A case study from Moldavia region, Romania," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 48-57.
    20. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2016. "Red obsession: The ascent of fine wine in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-225.
    21. Eric Le Fur & Jean-François Outreville, 2019. "Fine wine returns: a review of the literature," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 196-214, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aawewp:37297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaweeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.