[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/5276.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Business-related Services Really Lag Behind Manufacturing Industries in the Business Cycle? Empirical Evidence on the Lead/Lag Relationship Between Business-related Services and Manufacturing Industries for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiser, Ulrich
  • Voß, Katrin
Abstract
In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to increased outsourcing activities of the manufacturing sector. In this paper it is shown that the relationship is not as simple as it appears at first sight. We run Granger causality tests between sales growth rates of the business-related service sector against growth rates of various series of the manufacturing sector. It turns out that the relationship between business-related services and manufacturing is either contemporaneous or bi-directional, while no evidence is given for manufacturing leading business-related services.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, Ulrich & Voß, Katrin, 1999. "Do Business-related Services Really Lag Behind Manufacturing Industries in the Business Cycle? Empirical Evidence on the Lead/Lag Relationship Between Business-related Services and Manufacturing Indus," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-34, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24345/1/dp9934.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krämer, Hagen, 1999. "Dienstleistungen: Motor für Wachstum und Beschäftigung in Deutschland?," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 5/1999, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
    2. Klodt, Henning & Maurer, Rainer & Schimmelpfennig, Axel, 1997. "Tertiarisierung in der deutschen Wirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 959, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Kaiser, Ulrich & Buscher, Herbert S., 1999. "The Service Sentiment Indicator - A Business Climate Indicator for the German Business - Related Services Sector," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    4. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-386, July.
    5. Morrison, Catherine J, 1986. "Structural Models of Dynamic Factor Demands with Nonstatic Expectations: An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Expectations Specifications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-386, June.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:42:y:1975:i:166:p:123-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kaiser, Ulrich, 2001. "Moving in and out of financial distress: evidence for newly founded service sector firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-09, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Philip R. Gerson, 1998. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy Variables on Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 1998/001, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kreuter, Markus & Niggemann, Hiltrud, 2000. "The ZEW - Creditreform business survey in the business-related services sector : sampling frame, stratification, expansion and results," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-22, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
    4. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    5. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    6. Sotirios Varelas, 2022. "Virtual Immersive Platforms as a Strategic Innovative Destination Marketing Tool in the COVID-19 Era," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, October.
    7. Loperfido, Nicola, 2010. "A note on marginal and conditional independence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1695-1699, December.
    8. Hyunsoo Kang, 2022. "Impacts of Income Inequality and Economic Growth on CO 2 Emissions: Comparing the Gini Coefficient and the Top Income Share in OECD Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    10. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    11. Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
    12. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2001. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Exposures on Equity Asset Markets," Economics Series 94, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    13. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    14. Portes, Richard & Santorum, Anita, 1987. "Money and the consumption goods market in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 354-371, September.
    15. Alberto Fuertes & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "“Forecasting emerging market currencies: Are inflation expectations useful?”," IREA Working Papers 201918, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2019.
    16. Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2020. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from La Violencia in Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 53, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Wesam Salah Alaloul & Muhammad Ali Musarat & Muhammad Babar Ali Rabbani & Qaiser Iqbal & Ahsen Maqsoom & Waqas Farooq, 2021. "Construction Sector Contribution to Economic Stability: Malaysian GDP Distribution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, April.
    18. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "The rolling causal structure between the Chinese stock index and futures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(4), pages 491-509, November.
    19. Hany Eldemerdash & Hugh Metcalf & Sara Maioli, 2014. "Twin deficits: new evidence from a developing (oil vs. non-oil) countries’ perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 825-851, November.
    20. Olivier Damette & Stéphane Goutte, 2021. "Weather, Pollution, and Covid-19 Spread: A Time Series and Wavelet Reassessment," Springer Books, in: Fateh Belaïd & Anna Cretì (ed.), Energy Transition, Climate Change, and COVID-19, pages 95-106, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; Granger causality; business-related services;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.