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Confidence and college applications: Evidence from a randomized intervention

Author

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  • Hakimov, Rustamdjan
  • Schmacker, Renke
  • Terrier, Camille
Abstract
This paper investigates the role self-confidence plays in college applications. Using incentivized experiments, we measure the self-confidence of more than 2,000 students applying to colleges in France. This data reveals that the best female and low-SES students significantly underestimate their rank in the grade distribution compared to male and high-SES students. By matching our survey data with administrative data on real college applications and admissions, we show that miscalibrated confidence affects college choice on top of grades. We then estimate the impact of a randomized intervention that corrects students' under- and overconfidence by informing them of their real rank in the grade distribution. The treatment reduces the impact of under- and overconfidence for college applications, to the point where only grades but not miscalibrated confidence predict the application behavior of treated students. Providing feedback also makes the best students, who were initially underconfident, apply to more ambitious programs with stronger effects for female and low-SES students.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakimov, Rustamdjan & Schmacker, Renke & Terrier, Camille, 2022. "Confidence and college applications: Evidence from a randomized intervention," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2022-209, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2022209
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/268275/1/1830798855.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Owen, Stephanie, 2023. "College major choice and beliefs about relative performance: An experimental intervention to understand gender gaps in STEM," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    matching mechanism; confidence; information treatment; survey experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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