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How WTO commitments tame uncertainty

Author

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  • Jakubik, Adam
  • Piermartini, Roberta
Abstract
This paper studies how WTO rules and flexibilities shape its members' trade policy responses to import shocks. Guided by a cost benefit analysis model and using a unique database of tariff bindings for all WTO countries over the 1996-2011 period, we show that WTO commitments affect members' trade policy. More stringent bindings reduce the likelihood of responding to import shocks by raising tariffs and increase the likelihood of contingent measures. We argue that this reduces overall trade policy uncertainty. In a counterfactual scenario where WTO members can arbitrarily increase tariffs they are 4.5 times more likely to do so than under current bindings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakubik, Adam & Piermartini, Roberta, 2019. "How WTO commitments tame uncertainty," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-06, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201906
    DOI: 10.30875/d1a7253c-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Koopman, Robert & Hancock, John & Piermartini, Roberta & Bekkers, Eddy, 2020. "The Value of the WTO," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 829-849.
    2. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of Aid for Trade flows on the Accession to the World Trade Organization," EconStor Preprints 261331, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade agreements; trade policy; trade policy uncertainty; anti-dumping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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