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"The mother of all political problems"? On asylum seekers and elections

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  • Tomberg, Lukas
  • Smith Stegen, Karen
  • Vance, Colin
Abstract
As immigration to Europe has increased, so has support for extremist parties. While many studies have examined the effect of immigration on election outcomes, few have probed the effect of asylum seekers - those fleeing strife and persecution - on voting, nor has there been much research on the mediating role of local economic conditions. Drawing on county level panel data from Germany, our study fills both gaps. We find that economic circumstances, as measured by the unemployment rate and the level of disposable income, condition voters' responses to the presence of asylum seekers, but the effects for parties on the far right and left diverge markedly. Under economic prosperity, immigration increases support on both sides of the political spectrum. As economic conditions worsen, however, the effect of asylum seekers on the vote share for the far right remains stable, but weakens for the left, eventually becoming negative. This divergence - which has not yet been reported in the literature - suggests that an influx of asylum seekers, particularly when coupled with an economic downturn, could tilt a political system rightwards. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that heterogeneity arising from local economic conditions has important implications for the regional allocation of asylum seekers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomberg, Lukas & Smith Stegen, Karen & Vance, Colin, 2020. ""The mother of all political problems"? On asylum seekers and elections," Ruhr Economic Papers 879, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:879
    DOI: 10.4419/96973018
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    Cited by:

    1. Arye L. Hillman & Ngo Long, 2022. "Immigrants as future voters," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 149-174, January.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Duncan Roth, 2024. "The perceived impact of immigration on native workers' labour market outcomes," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202406, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Endrich, Marek, 2022. "A gate to the world for all? The reaction of neighborhoods in Hamburg to refugee housings," ILE Working Paper Series 65, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    4. Hatton, Timothy J., 2023. "Asylum recognition rates in Europe: Policies and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2021. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 876, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Benczes, István & Szabó, Krisztina, 2023. "Társadalmi törésvonalak és gazdasági (ir)racionalitások. A közgazdaságtan szerepe és helye a populizmus kutatásában [Social cleavages and economic (ir)rationalities: The role of economics in populi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 23-54.
    7. Leonard Knollenborg & Stephan Sommer, 2023. "Diverging Beliefs on Climate Change and Climate Policy: The Role of Political Orientation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1031-1049, April.
    8. Cerqua, Augusto & Zampollo, Federico, 2023. "Deeds or words? The local influence of anti-immigrant parties on foreigners’ flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asylum seekers; immigration; voting outcomes; fractional response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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