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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Dreger, Christian
  • Dubova, Irina
Abstract
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the last years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 622, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:622
    DOI: 10.4419/86788724
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    Cited by:

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    2. Velásquez, Jorge Sepúlveda & Griñen, Pablo Tapia & Henríquez, Boris Pastén, 2022. "Emerging market dynamics in H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Olayinka Oyekola & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2023. "Global Shocks in the US Economy: Effects on Output and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 411-435, April.
    4. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle divergence; Chinese transformation; Bayesian VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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