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Produktionswachstum setzt sich fort: Konjunkturbericht Nordrhein-Westfalen 2011

Author

Listed:
  • Döhrn, Roland
  • an de Meulen, Philipp
  • Kitlinski, Tobias
  • Vosen, Simeon
Abstract
In Nordrhein-Westfalen hat ähnlich wie in Deutschland insgesamt zur Jahresmitte 2009 eine konjunkturelle Wende eingesetzt. Die Wirtschaft des Landes erholte sich von einer Rezession, die allerdings tiefer war als die in der Bundesrepublik. Ausschlaggebend hierfür war die sektorale Spezialisierung des Landes auf Vorleistungs- und Investitionsgüter, beides Bereiche, die unter dem Einbruch des Welthandels besonders litten. Auch der Aufschwung verlief etwas langsamer. Dazu dürfte beigetragen haben, dass die nordrhein-westfälischen Pkw-Hersteller von der weltweit anziehenden Nachfrage nach Fahrzeugen im oberen Preissegment wenig profitierten, wodurch die Ausfuhren nach China - auf dessen Markt nordrhein-westfälische Unternehmen an sich eine starke Stellung haben - 2010 nur halb so schnell expandierten wie in Deutschland insgesamt. Beim Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) dürfte indes der Abstand zum Expansionstempo in Deutschland gering sein; wir erwarten für 2010 eine Zunahme um 3,5% (Deutschland: 3,7%). Im Jahr 2011 dürfte die Expansion in Nordrhein-Westfalen ähnlich wie in Deutschland insgesamt stärker von der Inlandsnachfrage bestimmt werden. Vieles spricht dafür, so z.B. aktuelle Umfragen unter Unternehmen, dass das nordrhein-westfälische BIP in etwa so steigen wird wie das deutsche, nämlich um 2,5%. Dies dürfte sich in einem weiteren Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit niederschlagen, zumal das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial demographisch bedingt rückläufig ist. Wir erwarten, dass die Zahl der Arbeitslosen bis Ende 2011 unter 700 000 sinken wird. Die Arbeitslosenquote würde damit um 0,7%-Punkte auf 8% fallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Vosen, Simeon, 2011. "Produktionswachstum setzt sich fort: Konjunkturbericht Nordrhein-Westfalen 2011," RWI Materialien 64, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:64
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    1. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
    2. Döhrn, Roland, 2010. "Die Lage auf dem Stahlmarkt: Zwischen flauer Nachfrage und steigenden Kosten," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 61(2), pages 83-91.
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