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The FOMC risk shift

Author

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  • Kroencke, Tim-Alexander
  • Schmeling, Maik
  • Schrimpf, Andreas
Abstract
We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of stock price movements around FOMC announcements; (ii) that they are accompanied by significant investor fund flows, suggesting that investors react heterogeneously to monetary policy news; and (iii) that price pressure amplifies the stock market response to monetary policy news. Our results imply that central bank information effects are overshadowed by short-term dynamics stemming from investor rebalancing activities and are likely to be more difficult to identify than previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Kroencke, Tim-Alexander & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC risk shift," SAFE Working Paper Series 302, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:302
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3774275
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    4. Ko Adachi & Kazuhiro Hiraki & Tomiyuki Kitamura, 2021. "Supplementary Paper Series for the "Assessment" (1): The Effects of the Bank of Japan's ETF Purchases on Risk Premia in the Stock Markets," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    5. Hu, Grace Xing & Pan, Jun & Wang, Jiang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2022. "Premium for heightened uncertainty: Explaining pre-announcement market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 909-936.
    6. Benchimol, Jonathan & Saadon, Yossi & Segev, Nimrod, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Difang Huang & Yubin Li & Xinjie Wang & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2022. "Does the Federal Open Market Committee cycle affect credit risk?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 143-167, March.
    9. Gazzani, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2024. "Oil price shocks in real time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Bodilsen, Simon & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Grønborg, Niels S., 2021. "Asset pricing and FOMC press conferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Plazzi, Alberto, 2020. "Does monetary policy impact international market co-movements?," SAFE Working Paper Series 276, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. Goodhead, Robert, 2024. "The economic impact of yield curve compression: Evidence from euro area forward guidance and unconventional monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    15. Maurer, Tim D. & Nitschka, Thomas, 2023. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    16. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2024. "What moves markets?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. Karau, Sören, 2023. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Surprises; Equity Premium; Fund Flows; Portfolio Rebalancing; Price Pressures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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