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Hayeks Überinvestitionstheorie

Author

Listed:
  • Quaas, Friedrun
  • Quaas, Georg
Abstract
Die Austrian Business Cycle-Theorie behauptet, dass am Anfang eines konjunkturellen Aufschwungs eine kreditfinanzierte Überinvestition stattfindet, die (in der Version Garrisons und in Anlehnung an von Mises) eventuell von einer Überkonsumtion begleitet wird. Beiden Varianten liegt die Überinvestitionstheorie Hayeks zugrunde, die dieser umfassend in "Preise und Produktion" (1931) darstellt, wobei er eine Reihe von Vorarbeiten benutzt, unter anderem seine eigenen Überlegungen zur Konjunktur- und Geldtheorie von 1929. In den beiden Jahren dazwischen erfolgt eine Verschiebung des Objekts seiner Kritik vom Bankensystem zur Zentralbank, der Hayek im Jahr 1931, das heißt inmitten einer weltweiten Deflation und angesichts knappen Geldes, empfiehlt, das Geld noch mehr an die Zügel zu legen, die Zinsen nicht zu senken, sondern zu erhöhen. Solche paradoxen Konsequenzen sind gerechtfertigt, wenn sie aufgrund einer logisch einwandfreien Theorie gezogen werden, die den härtesten empirischen Überprüfungen ausgesetzt worden ist. Letzteres setzt eine mathematische Modellierung voraus, die sowohl den Intentionen Hayeks als auch den Anforderungen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen genügt. Ein hoffentlich erfreulicher Nebeneffekt der vorgeschlagenen algebraischen Modellierung der Überinvestitionstheorie Hayeks besteht darin, dass dem modernen Ökonomen die Überinvestitionstheorie Hayeks näher gebracht wird, deren theoretischen Gehalt und empirische Fruchtbarkeit er nach Durchsicht dieser Seiten wohl selber beurteilen können wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Quaas, Friedrun & Quaas, Georg, 2015. "Hayeks Überinvestitionstheorie," Working Papers 141, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:leiwps:141
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grossmann, Volker & Steger, Thomas M. & Trimborn, Timo, 2013. "The macroeconomics of TANSTAAFL," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 76-85.
    2. Schäfer, Andreas & Schneider, Maik T., 2015. "Endogenous Enforcement Of Intellectual Property, North–South Trade, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(5), pages 1074-1115, July.
    3. McKinnon, Ronald & Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "China's exchange rate impasse and the weak U.S. dollar," Working Papers 73, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Quaas, Friedrun, 2019. "Die New Austrians als Pseudo-Heterodoxe? [The New Austrians as pseudo-heterodoxies?]," MPRA Paper 97470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Österreichische Schule der Nationalökonomie; Überinvestitionstheorie; Austrian Business Cycle Theory; Hayek'sches Dreieck; Sparen; Zwangssparen; Konjunkturtheorie; Krisentheorie; Hayek; Mises; Sraffa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E14 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Austrian; Evolutionary; Institutional

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