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A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Irrek, Maike
  • Schultz, Birgit
Abstract
Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Irrek, Maike & Schultz, Birgit, 2012. "A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-11-12
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional long-run projection; convergence; demographic change; regionale Wachstumsprojektion; ökonomische Konvergenz; demographischer Wandel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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