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Textual Sentiment, Option Characteristics, and Stock Return Predictability

Author

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  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan
  • Fengler, Matthias R.
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Liu, Yanchu
Abstract
We distill sentiment from a huge assortment of NASDAQ news articles by means of machine learning methods and examine its predictive power in single-stock option markets and equity markets. We provide evidence that single-stock options react to contemporaneous sentiment. Next, examining return predictability, we discover that while option variables indeed predict stock returns, sentiment variables add further informational content. In fact, both in a regression and a trading context, option variables orthogonalized to public and sentimental news are even more informative predictors of stock returns. Distinguishing further between overnight and trading-time news, we find the first to be more informative. From a statistical topic model, we uncover that this is attributable to the differing thematic coverage of the alternate archives. Finally, we show that sentiment disagreement commands a strong positive risk premium above and beyond market volatility and that lagged returns predict future returns in concentrated sentiment environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Liu, Yanchu, 2018. "Textual Sentiment, Option Characteristics, and Stock Return Predictability," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-023, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2018023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Joshua Zoen Git Hiew & Xin Huang & Hao Mou & Duan Li & Qi Wu & Yabo Xu, 2019. "BERT-based Financial Sentiment Index and LSTM-based Stock Return Predictability," Papers 1906.09024, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
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    10. Packham, Natalie & Woebbeking, Fabian, 2018. "A factor-model approach for correlation scenarios and correlation stress-testing," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-034, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    11. Chiu, Hsin-Yu & Chiang, Mi-Hsiu & Kuo, Wei-Yu, 2018. "Predicative Ability of Similarity-based Futures Trading Strategies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-045, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
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    19. Nasekin, Sergey & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan, 2018. "Deep learning-based cryptocurrency sentiment construction," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-066, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    20. Zbonakova, Lenka & Li, Xinjue & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "Penalized Adaptive Forecasting with Large Information Sets and Structural Changes," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-039, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investor disagreement; option markets; overnight information; stock return predictability; textual sentiment; topic model; trading-time information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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