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Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung
[World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich
Abstract
Dynamik weiter verringert. Am aktuellen Rand zeichnet sich aber eine Stabilisierung der Konjunktur ab; in den Schwellenländern scheinen sich die Erwartungen bereits etwas aufzuhellen. Stützend wirkt eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik; sie ist in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften wieder stark expansiv ausgerichtet, und niedrigere US-Zinsen haben es den Zentralbanken in den Schwellenländern erlaubt, die Zinsen auf breiter Front zu senken. Hinzu kommen in einigen Ländern spürbare Anregungen von der Finanzpolitik. Vor diesem Hintergrund dürfte die Weltwirtschaft allmählich wieder Tritt fassen. Der Produktionsanstieg bleibt aber verhalten, nicht zuletzt weil die bisher recht robuste US-Konjunktur zunächst noch an Fahrt verliert und auch die Expansion der chinesischen Wirtschaft sich in der Grundtendenz weiter leicht verlangsamt. Der Anstieg der Weltproduktion, gerechnet auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten, wird in diesem Jahr auf 3,0 Prozent zurückgehen, die geringste Rate seit der Großen Rezession im Jahr 2009. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die Zuwachsrate mit 3,1 Prozent nur wenig höher ausfallen. Wir haben unsere Prognose vom September damit für 2019 und 2020 nochmals leicht - um jeweils 0,1 Prozentpunkte - reduziert. Für 2021 erwarten wir unverändert einen Zuwachs um 3,4 Prozent. Eine erheblich ungünstigere Konjunkturentwicklung könnte in dem Fall eintreten, dass sich die Rahmenbedingungen für den internationalen Handel weiter spürbar verschlechtern und das Investitionsklima zusätzlich belastet wird. Dieses Abwärtsrisiko ist umso größer, je stärker die Schwäche in der Industrie mit zunehmender Dauer auf die Aktivität in der übrigen Wirtschaft durchwirkt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:61
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2020 - Euroraum: Corona-Virus zwingt Währungsunion in die Rezession [Euro Area Economy Spring 2020 - Euro area faces recession]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 64, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2019 - Abschwung flaut nur allmählich ab: Industrieschwäche verzögert die Erholung [German Economy Winter 2019 - German economy overcomes slowdown only gradually]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 62, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

    Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; Schwellenländer; monetary policy;
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