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Adapting long-lived investments under climate change uncertainty

Author

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  • Eisenack, Klaus
  • Paschen, Marius
Abstract
Does climate change adaptation require that investments are designed to be more robust? What about when climate change is more uncertain? What if the climate changes faster? This decision problem is difficult if the design of the investments is irreversible for their lifetime, for instance, in the construction industry. We study an irreversible design decision when the investment starts, combined with an irreversible option to abandon. The design determines the investment's robustness to sustain detrimental conditions. We find that for short-lived investments, optimal robustness decreases if the climate changes faster, and increases if uncertainty is higher. For long-lived investments, these effects reverse. This has implications for decision makers who plan infrastructure adaptation, for instance, that adverse climate change does not require more robust investments under the identified circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Eisenack, Klaus & Paschen, Marius, 2022. "Adapting long-lived investments under climate change uncertainty," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 267892, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:267892
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102743
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    Cited by:

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    2. Klaus Eisenack, 2024. "Why Local Governments Set Climate Targets: Effects of City Size and Political Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(11), pages 2935-2965, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Irreversibility; Lifetime; Optimal stopping; Robustness; Stochastic dynamic control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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