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A replication of "The long-run impact of foreign aid in 36 African countries: Insights from multivariate time series analysis" (Oxford Bulletin of Statistics and Economics, 2014)

Author

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  • Roger, Lionel
Abstract
Macroeconomic data have been shown to vary substantially between sources, especially so for low-income countries. While the impact of data revisions on inference is well documented for cross-country studies, there is no systematic analysis of the robustness of results obtained from time series analysis. This is despite the fact that time series analysis is an integral part of the econometric toolkit of government analysts, and informs policy decisions in many areas of macroeconomics. This study fills this gap for the notoriously controversial aid-effectiveness debate using the statistical framework by Juselius et al. (2014, Oxf Bull Econ Stat): by adopting alternative sources of GDP data in 36 sub-Saharan African countries The author finds that results remain robust across datasets in two thirds of the countries, but sometimes drastically change in others. These findings suggest that robustness checks such as those carried out here should become standard procedure for macroeconomic analysis using single-country time series.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger, Lionel, 2019. "A replication of "The long-run impact of foreign aid in 36 African countries: Insights from multivariate time series analysis" (Oxford Bulletin of Statistics and Economics, 2014)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201927
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Atherton & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2011. "Growth regressions and data revisions in Penn World Tables," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 301-312, August.
    2. Tony Addison & Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2017. "Aid, the Real Exchange Rate and Why Policy Matters: The Cases of Morocco and Tunisia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1104-1121, July.
    3. Breton, Theodore R., 2012. "Penn World Table 7.0: Are the data flawed?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 208-210.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time-series models; economic growth; economic data; foreign aid;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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