[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fsfmwp/216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Politicians' promotion incentives and bank risk exposure in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Li
  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Schröder, Michael
  • Xu, Xian
Abstract
This paper shows that politicians' pressure to climb the career ladder increases bank risk exposure in their region. Chinese local politicians are set growth targets in their region that are relative to each other. Growth is stimulated by debt-financed programs which are mainly financed via bank loans. The stronger the performance incentive the riskier the respective local bank exposure becomes. This effect holds primarily for local banks which are under a certain degree of control of local politicians and it has increased with the release of recent stimulus packages requiring local co-financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Li & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schröder, Michael & Xu, Xian, 2015. "Politicians' promotion incentives and bank risk exposure in China," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 216, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/110312/1/825733294.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 11-05, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. Hainz, Christa & Hakenes, Hendrik, 2012. "The politician and his banker — How to efficiently grant state aid," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 218-225.
    3. Sapienza, Paola, 2004. "The effects of government ownership on bank lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 357-384, May.
    4. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    5. Qiao, Baoyun & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Xu, Yongsheng, 2008. "The tradeoff between growth and equity in decentralization policy: China's experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 112-128, April.
    6. Petra Persson & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2016. "The Limits of Career Concerns in Federalism: Evidence from China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 338-374.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Federalism With and Without Political Centralization: China Versus Russia," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-8.
    8. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Government Ownership of Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 265-301, February.
    9. Chenggang Xu, 2011. "The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1076-1151, December.
    10. Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2014. "Bank Bonuses and Bailouts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 259-288, February.
    11. Reint Gropp & Christian Gruendl & Andre Guettler, 2014. "The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 457-488.
    12. Becker, Bo, 2007. "Geographical segmentation of US capital markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 151-178, July.
    13. Brandao-Marques, L. & Correa, R. & Sapriza, H., 2012. "International Evidence on Government Support and Risk-Taking in the Banking Sector," Other publications TiSEM 4a9756af-eb63-4867-ae29-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    15. Jiménez, Gabriel & Lopez, Jose A. & Saurina, Jesús, 2013. "How does competition affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-195.
    16. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    17. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    18. Thornton, John, 2007. "Fiscal decentralization and economic growth reconsidered," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 64-70, January.
    19. Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo & Yanez, Monica, 2007. "Bank ownership and performance. Does politics matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 219-241, January.
    20. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    21. Eric Maskin & Yingyi Qian & Chenggang Xu, 2000. "Incentives, Information, and Organizational Form," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(2), pages 359-378.
    22. Dinc, I. Serdar, 2005. "Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 453-479, August.
    23. Chen, Ye & Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Relative performance evaluation and the turnover of provincial leaders in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 421-425, September.
    24. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    25. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    26. Shi, Hao & Huang, Shaoqing, 2014. "How Much Infrastructure Is Too Much? A New Approach and Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 272-286.
    27. Krueger, Anne O, 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 291-303, June.
    28. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2010. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 121-129, September.
    29. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    30. Martha López & Fernando Tenjo & Héctor Zárate, 2011. "The Risk-Taking Channel and Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 29(64), pages 211-234, July.
    31. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    32. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    33. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lu, Liping & Ongena, Steven, 2013. "Does banking competition alleviate or worsen credit constraints faced by small- and medium-sized enterprises? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3412-3424.
    34. Akai, Nobuo & Sakata, Masayo, 2002. "Fiscal decentralization contributes to economic growth: evidence from state-level cross-section data for the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-108, July.
    35. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihák, 2014. "Competition, Efficiency, and Stability in Banking," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 215-241, March.
    36. Mayer,Colin & Vives,Xavier (ed.), 1993. "Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521443975, September.
    37. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025.
    38. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
    39. Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 325-345.
    40. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    41. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    42. Alex Cukierman, 2011. "Reflections on the Crisis and on its Lessons for Regulatory Reforms and for Central Bank Policies," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    43. Jin, Hehui & Qian, Yingyi & Weingast, Barry R., 2005. "Regional decentralization and fiscal incentives: Federalism, Chinese style," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1719-1742, September.
    44. Reint Gropp & Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2011. "Competition, Risk-shifting, and Public Bail-out Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2084-2120.
    45. Boyd, John H. & Runkle, David E., 1993. "Size and performance of banking firms : Testing the predictions of theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, February.
    46. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihak & Simon Wolfe, 2009. "Are Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 711-734, June.
    47. Ruixue Jia & Masayuki Kudamatsu & David Seim, 2015. "Political Selection In China: The Complementary Roles Of Connections And Performance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 631-668, August.
    48. Imai, Masami, 2012. "Local economic effects of a government-owned depository institution: Evidence from a natural experiment in Japan," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
    49. Distinguin, Isabelle & Kouassi, Tchudjane & Tarazi, Amine, 2013. "Interbank deposits and market discipline: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 544-560.
    50. Isabelle Distinguin & Tchudjane Kouassi & Amine Tarazi, 2012. "Interbank Deposits and Market discipline: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Banks," Post-Print hal-00785623, HAL.
    51. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    52. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2004. "Does bank capital affect lending behavior?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 436-457, October.
    53. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Correa, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2020. "Government support, regulation, and risk taking in the banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    54. Wang, Yong, 2013. "Fiscal decentralization, endogenous policies, and foreign direct investment: Theory and evidence from China and India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 107-123.
    55. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01313799 is not listed on IDEAS
    56. Manuel Illueca & Lars Norden & Gregory F. Udell, 2014. "Liberalization and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Government-Controlled Banks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1217-1257.
    57. Ebel, Robert D. & Yilmaz, Serdar, 2002. "On the measurement and impact of fiscal decentralization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2809, The World Bank.
    58. Jun (Qj) Qian & Philip E. Strahan & Zhishu Yang, 2015. "The Impact of Incentives and Communication Costs on Information Production and Use: Evidence from Bank Lending," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1457-1493, August.
    59. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    60. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janbaz, Mehdi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Floreani, Josanco & Dreassi, Alberto & Jiménez, Alfredo, 2022. "Political risk in banks: A review and agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Chen, Haiqiang & Lin, Zhe, 2024. "Local fiscal pressure and shadow banking activities of nonfinancial enterprises–A story of government intervention," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    3. Liang, Quanxi & Huang, Jinlan & Liang, Mingjun & Li, Jingxiang, 2024. "Economic growth targets and bank risk exposure: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Cheng, Junguo & Wang, Lei & He, Jing, 2023. "Political promotion incentives and banking supervision: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Deng, Jiapin & Liu, Qiao, 2024. "Good finance, bad finance, and resource misallocation: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Tian, Yunlin & Pan, Xiaofei & Pang, Baoqing & Wu, Yiping, 2023. "Political career concerns and bank lending in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Ren, Meixu & Ke, Konglin & Yu, Xin & Zhao, Jinxuan, 2023. "Local governments' economic growth target pressure and bank loan loss provision: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Pauline Avril & Gregory Levieuge & Camelia Turcu, 2023. "Do bankers want their umbrellas back when it rains? Evidence from typhoons in China," Working Papers 2023.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Zhuo Chen & Mingzhi Hu & Zhiyi Qiu, 2022. "Promotion Pressures of Local Leaders and Real Estate Investments: China and Leader Heterogeneity," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Yujing Huang, 2022. "The Impact of Government Official Assessment on Ecological Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-19, March.
    11. Yuyuan Chang & Wen He & Jianling Wang, 2021. "Government Initiated Corporate Social Responsibility Activities: Evidence from a Poverty Alleviation Campaign in China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(4), pages 661-685, November.
    12. Duan, Yuejiao & Liu, Lanbiao & Zhang, Jingjia, 2024. "The belt and road initiative and the over-leverage of securities companies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Wan, Junmin, 2018. "Non-performing loans and housing prices in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-42.
    14. Hou, Liming & Hsueh, Shao-Chieh & Zhang, Shuoxun, 2020. "Does formal financial development crowd in informal financing? Evidence from Chinese private enterprises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 288-301.
    15. Cheng, Maoyong & Yao, Yutong & Jin, Justin Y. & Nainar, Khalid & Meng, Yu, 2024. "Leadership vacuum and urban economic development: Evidence from a transition country," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 230-252.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li Wang & Lukas Menkhoff & Michael Schröder & Xian Xu, 2018. "Politicians' Promotion Incentives and Bank Risk Exposure," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1771, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Doan, Anh-Tuan & Lin, Kun-Li, 2022. "Bank ownership and stock price informativeness. Does politics matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Liang, Quanxi & Huang, Jinlan & Liang, Mingjun & Li, Jingxiang, 2024. "Economic growth targets and bank risk exposure: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Whelsy Boungou, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking," Working Papers hal-03456106, HAL.
    5. Bongiovanni, Alessio & Reghezza, Alessio & Santamaria, Riccardo & Williams, Jonathan, 2021. "Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 350-364.
    6. Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui & Wu, Ji, 2015. "Corruption and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 122-148.
    7. Fernando Avalos & Emmanuel C Mamatzakis, 2018. "Euro area unconventional monetary policy and bank resilience," BIS Working Papers 754, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    9. Kang, Shulong & Dong, Jianfeng & Yu, Haiyue & Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya, 2021. "City commercial banks and credit allocation: Firm-level evidence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Wu, Ji & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Does foreign bank penetration affect the risk of domestic banks? Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 45-61.
    11. Saibal Ghosh, 2023. "Political connections and bank behaviour," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(1), February.
    12. Kang, Shulong & Dong, Jianfeng & Yu, Haiyue & Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya, 2021. "City commercial banks and credit allocation : Firm-level evidence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_004 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Raslan Alzubi & Mustafa Caglayan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2017. "The Risk-Taking Channel in the US: A GVAR Approach," Working Papers 2017009, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    15. Boubakri, Narjess & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Hossain, Mahmud, 2020. "Post-privatization state ownership and bank risk-taking: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Janbaz, Mehdi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Floreani, Josanco & Dreassi, Alberto & Jiménez, Alfredo, 2022. "Political risk in banks: A review and agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2017. "Is there a competition-stability trade-off in European banking?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 199-215.
    18. Brana, Sophie & Campmas, Alexandra & Lapteacru, Ion, 2019. "(Un)Conventional monetary policy and bank risk-taking: A nonlinear relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 576-593.
    19. Ahamed, M. Mostak & Mallick, Sushanta, 2017. "Does regulatory forbearance matter for bank stability? Evidence from creditors’ perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 163-180.
    20. Diana Zigraiova & Tomas Havranek, 2016. "Bank Competition And Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 944-981, December.
    21. Brandao-Marques, L. & Correa, R. & Sapriza, H., 2012. "International Evidence on Government Support and Risk-Taking in the Banking Sector," Other publications TiSEM 4a9756af-eb63-4867-ae29-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Lending; Bank Risk Exposure; Local Politicians; Promotion Incentives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hfbfide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.