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Robust Real Rate Rules

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  • Holden, Tom D.
Abstract
Central banks wish to avoid self-fulfilling fluctuations. Interest rate rules with a unit response to real rates achieve this under the weakest possible assumptions about the behaviour of households and firms. They are robust to household heterogeneity, hand-to-mouth consumers, non-rational household or firm expectations, active fiscal policy and to any form of intertemporal or nominal-real links. They are easy to employ in practice, using inflation-protected bonds to infer real rates. With a time-varying short-term inflation target, they can implement an arbitrary inflation path, including optimal policy. This provides a way to translate policy makers’ desired path for inflation into one for nominal rates. US Federal Reserve behaviour is remarkably close to that predicted by a real rate rule, given the desired inflation path of US monetary policy makers. Real rate rules work thanks to the key role played by the Fisher equation in monetary transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Holden, Tom D., 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," EconStor Preprints 279481, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:279481
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    Cited by:

    1. Babette Jansen & Roland Winkler, 2024. "Household Heterogeneity, Nonseparable Preferences, and the Taylor Principle," Jena Economics Research Papers 2024-006, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    robust monetary rules; determinacy; Taylor principle; inflation dynamics; transmission mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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