[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/799.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Bigger House at the Cost of an Empty Fridge? The Effect of Households' Indebtedness on Their Consumption: Micro-Evidence Using Belgian HFCS Data

Author

Listed:
  • Du Caju, Philip
  • Périlleux, Guillaume
  • Rycx, François
  • Tojerow, Ilan
Abstract
This paper investigates the potentially non-linear relation between households' indebtedness and their consumption between 2010 and 2014 in Belgium, using panel data from the two waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. Unlike previous studies, we find a negative effect of households' indebtedness on their consumption, even in the absence of negative shock on their assets. Our findings suggest that, without such a shock, it is the day-to-day sustainability of the debt, rather than its overall sustainability, that leads households to reduce their consumption. We perform as well a threshold analysis, whose results suggest that households should not have a debt-service-to-income ratio greater than 30%. The effect appears to be robust to various specifications, to result from a trade-off between housing and consumption, and to be more prevalent among more fragile households.

Suggested Citation

  • Du Caju, Philip & Périlleux, Guillaume & Rycx, François & Tojerow, Ilan, 2021. "A Bigger House at the Cost of an Empty Fridge? The Effect of Households' Indebtedness on Their Consumption: Micro-Evidence Using Belgian HFCS Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 799, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:799
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/232007/1/GLO-DP-0799.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianni Betti & Neil Dourmashkin & Mariacristina Rossi & Ya Ping Yin, 2007. "Consumer over‐indebtedness in the EU: measurement and characteristics," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(2), pages 136-156, May.
    2. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-788, September.
    3. Ph. Du Caju & Th. Roelandt & Chr. Van Nieuwenhuyze & M.-D. Zachary, 2014. "Household debt: evolution and distribution," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 61-81, September.
    4. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    5. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2014. "Fiscal Policy and MPC Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 107-136, October.
    6. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    7. Bruno Albuquerque & Georgi Krustev, 2018. "Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 459-481, June.
    8. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    9. Ampudia, Miguel & van Vlokhoven, Has & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "Financial fragility of euro area households," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 250-262.
    10. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    11. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    13. Lang, Jan Hannes & Pirovano, Mara & Rusnák, Marek & Schwarz, Claudia, 2020. "Trends in residential real estate lending standards and implications for financial stability," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    14. Abay Asfaw, 2011. "Does consumption of processed foods explain disparities in the body weight of individuals? The case of Guatemala," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 184-195, February.
    15. Bing Zhu & Lingxiao Li & David H. Downs & Steffen Sebastian, 2019. "New Evidence on Housing Wealth and Consumption Channels," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 51-79, January.
    16. Kim, Young Il & Hwang, Min, 2016. "Household Debt and Consumer Spending in Korea: Evidence from Household Data," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 38(4), pages 23-44.
    17. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2015. "Household debt and spending in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 554, Bank of England.
    18. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2000. "College tuition and household savings and consumption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 185-207, August.
    19. R. Calcagno & E. Fornero & M. Rossi, 2009. "The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 284-300, October.
    20. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    21. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    22. Giovanni D’Alessio & Stefano Iezzi, 2013. "Household over-indebtedness - Definition and measurement with Italian data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 496-517, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. √Íscar Jord√Ä & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    24. Peter Temin, 2010. "The Great Recession and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 15645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Miguel Ampudia & Russell Cooper & Julia Le Blanc & Guozhong Zhu, 2018. "MPC Heterogeneity in Europe: Sources and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 25082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
    27. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    28. Karen E. Dynan & Wendy Edelberg, 2013. "The relationship between leverage and household spending behavior: evidence from the 2007-2009 survey of consumer finances," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 425-448.
    29. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    30. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413, September.
    32. Milton Friedman, 1957. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 20-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip Caju & Guillaume Périlleux & François Rycx & Ilan Tojerow, 2023. "A bigger house at the cost of an empty stomach? The effect of households’ indebtedness on their consumption: micro-evidence using Belgian HFCS data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 291-333, March.
    2. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    3. Song, Sang-yoon, 2022. "The heterogeneity of interest-induced MPC: Evidence from mortgage borrowers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 402-417.
    4. Sang-yoon Song, 2019. "The Cash-Flow Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Mortgage Borrowers," Working Papers 2019-20, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    5. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    6. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Paolo Surico, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 102-129.
    7. Deniz Aydin, 2022. "Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(1), pages 1-40, January.
    8. Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Household balance sheet channels of monetary policy: A back of the envelope calculation for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Fiona Price & Benjamin Beckers & Gianni La Cava, 2019. "The Effect of Mortgage Debt on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Household-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Nakajima, Jouchi, 2020. "The role of household debt heterogeneity on consumption: Evidence from Japanese household data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 186-197.
    11. Apostolos Fasianos & Reamonn Lydon, 2022. "Do households with debt cut back their consumption more? New evidence from the United Kingdom," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 737-760, July.
    12. Mairead Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2021. "Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 578-628, May.
    13. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2020. "Macroprudential Policy and Household Debt: What is Wrong with Swedish Macroprudential Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Wealth and Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2173-2213.
    15. Nemeczek, Fabian & Radermacher, Jan, 2022. "Personality-augmented MPC: Linking survey and transaction data to explain MPC heterogeneity by Big Five personality traits," SAFE Working Paper Series 348, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    17. J. Anthony Cookson & Erik P. Gilje & Rawley Z. Heimer, 2020. "Shale Shocked: Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 27782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    19. Scott Ross Baker & Contantine Yannelis, 2017. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 99-124, January.
    20. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4398-4446.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Households; Indebtedness; Consumption; Debt-Service-to-Income; Non-linear Heterogeneous Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.