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A comparison of monetary policy rules in an estimated TANK model

Author

Listed:
  • Gerke, Rafael
  • Giesen, Sebastian
  • Kienzler, Daniel
  • Röttger, Joost
  • Scheer, Alexander
Abstract
We compare the stabilisation properties of history-dependent and asymmetric interest rate rules, taking into account the constraint posed by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. Specifically, we use a medium-scale Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model that was estimated on euro area data. Our simulation results suggest that under rational expectations history-dependent rules can attenuate or even undo the sizeable negative in ation bias that we observe under standard in ation targeting. They can also better stabilise in ation, but output becomes more volatile. Asymmetric rules furthermore reduce the negative in ation bias. However, the reduction in in ation volatility is less pronounced compared to history-dependent rules. We further show that an appropriate calibration of an asymmetric in ation targeting rule improves its performance along specific dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel & Röttger, Joost & Scheer, Alexander, 2021. "A comparison of monetary policy rules in an estimated TANK model," Technical Papers 05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubtps:283328
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Günter Coenen & Carlos Montes‐Galdón & Frank Smets, 2023. "Effects of State‐Dependent Forward Guidance, Large‐Scale Asset Purchases, and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low‐Interest‐Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 825-858, June.
    6. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Scheer, Alexander, 2020. "The power of forward guidance in a quantitative TANK model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    7. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
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    9. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; effective lower bound; in ation target; make-up strategies; asymmetric policy rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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