[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/422018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The pricing of FX forward contracts: Micro evidence from banks' dollar hedging

Author

Listed:
  • Abbassi, Puriya
  • Bräuning, Falk
Abstract
Using transaction-level data on foreign exchange (FX) forward contracts, we document large demand-driven heterogeneity in banks' dollar hedging costs. For identification, we exploit regulatory end-of-quarter reporting that penalizes banks' currency exposure with capital surcharges. Contracts that reduce quarter-end currency exposure trade at higher prices, specifically for banks with high dollar funding gaps and high leverage, while access to internal dollar capital markets and bargaining power reduces prices. Spreads between similar contracts with and without initial margin widen with leverage. Our results suggest that banks' shadow costs of capital are important for the international propagation of shocks through FX derivatives markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbassi, Puriya & Bräuning, Falk, 2018. "The pricing of FX forward contracts: Micro evidence from banks' dollar hedging," Discussion Papers 42/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:422018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/183488/1/dkp-42.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2008. "A Search‐Based Theory of the On‐the‐Run Phenomenon," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1361-1398, June.
    2. Gara Afonso & Ricardo Lagos, 2015. "Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 263-313, January.
    3. Niall Coffey & Warren B. Hrung & Asani Sarkar, 2009. "Capital constraints, counterparty risk, and deviations from covered interest rate parity," Staff Reports 393, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Liquidity premia in dynamic bargaining markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 66-96, May.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    6. Darrell Duffie & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Valuation in Over-the-Counter Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1865-1900, November.
    7. John C. Williams & John B. Taylor, 2009. "A Black Swan in the Money Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 58-83, January.
    8. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Falk Bräuning & Victoria Ivashina, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Global Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3055-3095, December.
    10. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 2021. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    11. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    12. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    14. Harald Hau & Peter Hoffmann & Sam Langfield & Yannick Timmer, 2021. "Discriminatory Pricing of Over-the-Counter Derivatives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 6660-6677, November.
    15. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    16. Falk Bräuning & Kovid Puria, 2017. "Uncovering covered interest parity: the role of bank regulation and monetary policy," Current Policy Perspectives 17-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    17. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2017. "FX swaps and forwards: missing global debt?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    18. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2009. "Liquidity in Asset Markets With Search Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 403-426, March.
    19. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    20. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    21. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Margin-based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1980-2022.
    22. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2016. "Shadow Insurance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1265-1287, May.
    23. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    24. Stefan Avdjiev & Wenxin Du & Cathérine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Deviations from Covered Interest Parity," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 193-208, September.
    25. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    26. Puriya Abbassi & Falk Bräuning & Niels Schulze, 2021. "Bargaining power and outside options in the interbank lending market," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(2), pages 553-586, June.
    27. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Angelo Ranaldo, 2010. "Limits to arbitrage during the crisis: funding liquidity constraints and covered interest parity," Working Papers 2010-14, Swiss National Bank.
    28. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Allen, Linda & Saunders, Anthony, 1992. "Bank window dressing: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 585-623, June.
    30. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Bech, Morten L. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: Interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 415-431.
    32. Ingo Fender & Patrick McGuire, 2010. "Bank structure, funding risk and the transmission of shocks across countries: concepts and measurement," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    33. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
    34. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 0. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    35. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    36. Roni Kisin & Asaf Manela, 2016. "The Shadow Cost of Bank Capital Requirements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(7), pages 1780-1820.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krohn, Ingomar & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2022. "FX spot and swap market liquidity spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Rosati, Simonetta & Vacirca, Francesco, 2019. "Interdependencies in the euro area derivatives clearing network: a multi-layer network approach," Working Paper Series 2342, European Central Bank.
    3. Dalla Fontana, Silvia & Holz auf der Heide, Marco & Pelizzon, Loriana & Scheicher, Martin, 2019. "The anatomy of the euro area interest rate swap market," Working Paper Series 2242, European Central Bank.
    4. Puriya Abbassi & Rajkamal Iyer & José-Luis Peydró & Paul E. Soto, 2020. "Stressed Banks? Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review," Working Papers 1178, Barcelona School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Alyssa G. Anderson & Wenxin Du & Bernd Schlusche, 2021. "Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," BIS Working Papers 651, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2020. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Krohn, Ingomar & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2022. "FX spot and swap market liquidity spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Fernando Eguren‐Martin & Matias Ossandon Busch & Dennis Reinhardt, 2024. "Global Banks and Synthetic Funding: The Benefits of Foreign Relatives," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 115-152, February.
    9. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Ehlers, Torsten & Eren, Egemen, 2022. "Global banks, dollar funding, and regulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Bahaj, Saleem & Reis, Ricardo, 2018. "Central Bank Swap Lines," Bank of England working papers 741, Bank of England.
    14. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    15. Gara Afonso & Ricardo Lagos, 2015. "Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 263-313, January.
    16. Polo, Andrea & Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Khametshin, Dmitry & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit and Global Financial Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 12817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Olav Syrstad, 2020. "Covered Interest Parity in long-dated securities," Working Paper 2020/11, Norges Bank.
    18. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    19. Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 57-78, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Karolina Puławska, 2022. "Effects of the bank levy introduction on the interbank market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 844-864, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FX markets; hedging; price determination; global banks; international finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:422018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.