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Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Barker, Jamie
  • Herrala, Risto
Abstract
Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India's mid-term growth rate by other institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Barker, Jamie & Herrala, Risto, 2021. "Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:82021
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251709/1/bpb2108.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Parma Chakravartti & Sudipto Mundle, 2019. "Forecasting India’s economic growth: a time-varying parameter regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 205-228, September.
    2. Herrala, Risto, 2020. "Capital controls in an integrated world: A review of recent developments, policies and the academic debate," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Iyer, Tara, 2019. "Quarterly Forecasting Model for India’s Economic Growth: Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 573, Asian Development Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indian economy; forecasting; GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

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