[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ciwdps/62018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

You failed! Government satisfaction and party preferences facing Islamist terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Nowak, Anna
Abstract
International crises like dramatic terror attacks leave their mark on society in various ways. According to the existing literature, some of these consequences include two seemingly conflicting responses: increasing as well as decreasing support for the incumbent government. To make sense of this seeming contradiction, this study combines these observations in one empirical framework. We investigate the effects of Islamist terrorism on citizens' evaluation of the national government by logistic regression analyses using data from the European Social Survey (ESS) for Germany from 2014 to 2017. Our analyses demonstrate that support for the government significantly increases in the aftermath of Islamist terror attacks. However, the intensity of such support decreases with repeated exposure to terror attacks, and these effects even reverse when a certain level of terror is reached. Further, we find that radical right parties benefit from the issues accentuated by terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Nowak, Anna, 2018. "You failed! Government satisfaction and party preferences facing Islamist terrorism," CIW Discussion Papers 6/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:62018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/190810/1/1043359842.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiewiet, D. Roderick, 1981. "Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 448-459, June.
    2. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    3. Berrebi, Claude & Klor, Esteban F., 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism? Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 279-301, August.
    4. Jussi Nikkinen & Sami Vähämaa, 2010. "Terrorism and Stock Market Sentiment," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 263-275, May.
    5. Martin Gassebner & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin & Jochen O. Mierau, 2011. "Terrorism And Cabinet Duration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1253-1270, November.
    6. Matthijs Rooduijn & Brian Burgoon & Erika J van Elsas & Herman G van de Werfhorst, 2017. "Radical distinction: Support for radical left and radical right parties in Europe," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(4), pages 536-559, December.
    7. Younas, Javed, 2015. "Terrorism, openness and the Feldstein–Horioka paradox," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Marcel Lubbers & Marcel Coenders, 2017. "Nationalistic attitudes and voting for the radical right in Europe," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(1), pages 98-118, March.
    9. Paschalis Arvanitidis & Athina Economou & Christos Kollias, 2016. "Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 231-250, December.
    10. Benny Geys & Salmai Qari, 2017. "Will you still trust me tomorrow? The causal effect of terrorism on social trust," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 289-305, December.
    11. Bassil Charbel, 2014. "The Effect of Terrorism on Tourism Demand in the Middle East," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 669-684, December.
    12. Enders,Walter & Sandler,Todd, 2012. "The Political Economy of Terrorism," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521181006, September.
    13. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2006. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 899-925, December.
    14. Carmines, Edward G. & Stimson, James A., 1980. "The Two Faces of Issue Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 78-91, March.
    15. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    16. Kollias, Christos & Manou, Efthalia & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Stock markets and terrorist attacks: Comparative evidence from a large and a small capitalization market," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 64-77.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Athina Economou & Christos Kollias, 2019. "Security policy preferences of EU citizens: Do terrorist events affect them?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 445-471, March.
    2. Gan Jin & Md Rafiul Karim & Günther G. Schulze, 2024. "The Stock Market Effects of Islamist versus Non-Islamist Terror," Discussion Paper Series 45 JEL Classification: D7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Nowak, Anna, 2019. "Rally around the EU flag! Supra-nationalism in the light of Islamist terrorism," CIW Discussion Papers 5/2019, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    4. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    5. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
    6. Daniel G. Arce, 2019. "On the human consequences of terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 371-396, March.
    7. Benny Geys & Øystein Hernæs, 2021. "Party leaders and voter responses to political terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 481-499, June.
    8. Shuai Chen, 2022. "Rally Post-Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9638, CESifo.
    9. Anastasios Zopiatis & Christos S. Savva & Neophytos Lambertides & Michael McAleer, 2017. "Tourism Stocks in Times of Crises: An Econometric Investigation of Unexpected Non-macroeconomic Factors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-052/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
    11. Javier Gardeazabal, 2011. "Terrorism, Economic Downturns and Elections," EUSECON Policy Briefing 4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    13. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-14, November.
    14. Ben Bassat Avi & Dahan Momi & Geys Benny & Klor Esteban F., 2012. "The Impact of the Economic Costs of Conflict on Individuals' Political Attitudes," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
    15. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    16. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    17. Narayan, S. & Le, T.-H. & Sriananthakumar, S., 2018. "The influence of terrorism risk on stock market integration: Evidence from eight OECD countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-259.
    18. Haritz Garro, 2019. "Terrorism prevention with reelection concerns and valence competition," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 31(3), pages 330-369, July.
    19. Christopher Linebarger & Andrew J. Enterline & Steven R. Liebel, 2020. "Shaken or stirred? Terrorism and third-party state resolve in civil war interventions," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 301-322, May.
    20. Paschalis Arvanitidis & Athina Economou & Christos Kollias, 2016. "Terrorism’s effects on social capital in European countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 231-250, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    terrorism; crisis; rally effect; party preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:62018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ilmuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.