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Market response to investor sentiment

Author

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  • Hengelbrock, Jördis
  • Theissen, Erik
  • Westheide, Christian
Abstract
Recent empirical research suggests that measures of investor sentiment have predictive power for future stock returns over the intermediate and long term. Given the widespread publication of sentiment indicators, smart investors should trade on the information conveyed by such indicators and thus trigger an immediate market response to their publication. The present paper is the first to empirically analyze whether an immediate response can be identified from the data. We use survey-based sentiment indicators from two countries (Germany and the US). Consistent with previous research we find there is predictability at intermediate time horizons. For the US, however, the predictability disappears after 1994. Using event study methodology we find that the publication of sentiment indicators affects market returns. The sign of the immediate response is the same as that of the predictability over the intermediate term. This finding is consistent with the idea that sentiment is related to mispricing, but is inconsistent with the idea that the sentiment indicator provides information about future expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hengelbrock, Jördis & Theissen, Erik & Westheide, Christian, 2011. "Market response to investor sentiment," CFR Working Papers 11-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    3. Keval Amin & Erica Harris, 2022. "The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Nonprofit Donations," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 175(2), pages 427-450, January.
    4. Khuu, Joyce & Durand, Robert B. & Smales, Lee A., 2016. "Melancholia and Japanese stock returns – 2003 to 2012," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 424-437.
    5. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Bormann, Sven-Kristjan, 2013. "Sentiment indices on financial markets: What do they measure?," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-58, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
    8. Ahmed Bouteska & Taimur Sharif & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin, 2024. "Does investor sentiment create value for asset pricing? An empirical investigation of the KOSPI‐listed firms," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3487-3509, July.
    9. Edward J. Riedl & Estelle Y. Sun & Guannan Wang, 2021. "Sentiment, Loss Firms, and Investor Expectations of Future Earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 518-544, March.
    10. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    11. Korhan Gokmenoglu & Siamand Hesami, 2019. "Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 687-707, April.
    12. Steffen Heinig & Anupam Nanda & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2016. "Which Sentiment Indicators Matter? An Analysis of the European Commercial Real Estate Market," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    13. Nico Singer & Saskia Laser & Frank Dreher, 2013. "Published stock recommendations as investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1233-1249, December.
    14. Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik & Ondrej Badura, 2021. "Does Sentiment Affect Stock Returns? A Meta-analysis Across Survey-based Measures," Working Papers 2021/10, Czech National Bank.
    15. Yamini Yadav & Pramod Kumar Naik, 2024. "Investors’ Irrational Sentiment and Stock Market Returns: A Quantile Regression Approach Using Indian Data," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 12(1), pages 45-64, January.
    16. Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Lorraine Rupande & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2019. "Investor sentiment and foreign financial flows: Evidence from South Africa," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 473-498.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor Sentiment; Event Study; Return Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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