[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cegedp/55.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reasons for real appreciation in Central Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Brandmeier, Michael
Abstract
The real economic effects of the considerably high appreciation in Central European Economies (CEE) are controversially disputed in the eve of the European Monetary Union (EMU) entry of several CEE economies. The Balassa-Samuelson-effect was made responsible for the expectation of higher inflation rates in CEE than in the EMU in the next years. Higher inflation rates will deteriorate the price competitiveness of the export sectors in the CEE countries because of real appreciation. This paper focuses on the effects of labour productivity differences in several industrial and service sectors on the consumer prices. Labour productivity changes are affected by the technology impact on labour demand and by the relative wage increases following from tensions of regional labour markets because of rising prices and skilled labour shortage. Real appreciation is determined by labour productivity differences and by capital good imports. We conclude that the negative coherence between real appreciation and the endangered price competitiveness of the export sectors in CEE has to be taken into account, unless the negative experience of loss of competitiveness because of sudden real appreciation in Eastern Germany will take place on a large scale in the eastern part of the enlarged euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandmeier, Michael, 2006. "Reasons for real appreciation in Central Europe," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 55, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32030/1/512744270.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Frauke Skudelny, 2000. "Inflation and Productivity Differentials in EMU," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0015, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
    4. Hans Peter Grüner & Carsten Hefeker, 1999. "How Will EMU Affect Inflation and Unemployment in Europe?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(1), pages 33-47, March.
    5. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    7. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    8. Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is there scope for inflation differentials in EMU? An empirical evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelson model in EMU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
    9. Jochen Michaelis & Heike Minich, 2004. "Inflationsdifferenzen im Euroraum - eine Bestandsaufnahme," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 59(04), pages 379-405, December.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kornélia Krajnyák & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1998. "Competitiveness in Transition Economies: What Scope for Real Appreciation?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 309-362, June.
    12. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
    13. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2003. "Die internationale Integration der Geldmärkte in den mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländern: Abweichungen von der gedeckten Zinsparität, Kapitalverkehrskontrollen und Ineffizienzen des Finanzsek," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Vasily Astrov & Vladimir Gligorov & Peter Havlik & Mario Holzner & Gabor Hunya & Michael Landesmann & Zdenek Lukas & Anton Mihailov & Leon Podkaminer & Josef Pöschl & Sandor Richter & Waltraut Urban &, 2006. "Strong Growth, Driven by Exports in the NMS and by Consumption in the Future EU Members," wiiw Research Reports 325, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    15. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    16. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
    17. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    18. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Maier, Philipp & Cavelaars, Paul, 2004. "Convergence of price levels: lessons from the German reunification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 467-481, September.
    20. Belke, Ansgar & Kaas, Leo & Setzer, Ralph, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Labour Markets in the CEE Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Katja Rietzler & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2001. "Inflationsunterschiede im Euroraum: muss die EZB ihr Stabilitätsziel revidieren?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(38), pages 591-597.
    22. Philipp Maier & Paul Cavelaars, 2003. "EMU enlargement and convergence of price levels: Lessons from the German reunification," Macroeconomics 0306016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2011. "Modelling Stock Exchange Index Returns in Different GDP Growth Regimes," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(1), pages 3-22.
    2. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka, 2012. "The Roots of the Banking Crisis in the New EU Member States: A Panel Regression Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-40, March.
    3. Mejra Festić & Dejan Romih, 2008. "Cyclicality of the banking sector performance and macro environment in the Czech republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(2), pages 99-117.
    4. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
    5. Mirjana Miletić, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Revised Analysis of Panel Data Cointegration Tests," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 475-499, September.
    6. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:got:cegedp:55 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. García Solanes José, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Central and Eastern European Countries. Why the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Does Not Explain the Whole Story," Working Papers 2010100, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
    3. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    4. Lenarčič, Črt & Masten, Igor, 2020. "Is there a Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect? New panel data evidence from 28 European countries," MPRA Paper 100647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Balázs Világi, 2004. "Dual inflation and real exchange rate in new open economy macroeconomics," MNB Working Papers 2004/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Balázs Világi, 2005. "Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 315-349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    11. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Couharde, Cécile & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Measuring the Balassa-Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    13. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Marková & Jiøí Podpiera, 2003. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(3-4), pages 130-153, March.
    14. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
    15. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    17. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    18. Borgersen, Trond-Arne & King, Roswitha M., 2011. "Reallocation and restructuring: A generalization of the Balassa–Samuelson effect," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 287-298.
    19. D’Adamo, Gaetano & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2015. "The role of the exchange rate regime in the process of real and nominal convergence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 21-37.
    20. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    21. Lojschová, Adriana, 2003. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Transition Economies," Economics Series 140, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    22. Egert, Balazs, 2002. "Estimating the impact of the Balassa-Samuelson effect on inflation and the real exchange rate during the transition," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-16, April.
    23. Lipinska, Anna, 2006. "The Maastricht convergence criteria and optimal monetary policy for the EMU accession countries," MPRA Paper 1795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; inflation differences; Balassa-Samuelson-effect; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdgoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.