[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cciehs/36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

IPO investment strategies and pseudo market timing

Author

Listed:
  • Trauten, Andreas
  • Schulz, Roland C.
Abstract
We analyse the performance of simple investment strategies in IPOs based on a large sample of IPOs in Germany between 1985 and 2002. In particular, we compare the performance of the following strategies: Invest equally weighted in each IPO, invest market value weighted in each IPO, invest in an equally weighted portfolio of recent IPOs or invest in a value weighted portfolio of recent IPOs. We find that investors pursuing the first two investment strategies would realise significantly negative abnormal returns on average. In contrast, applying a bootstrapping procedure, we find that investing according to the latter two investment strategies does not yield significant underperformance. The difference in performance among investment strategies points to the phenomenon that firms going public in hot IPO markets perform worse than those going public in cold markets. We analyse to what extent this phenomenon can be attributed to pseudo market timing. Based on simulations, our results indicate that pseudo market timing can partly explain the performance of IPO investment strategies between 1996 and 2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Trauten, Andreas & Schulz, Roland C., 2006. "IPO investment strategies and pseudo market timing," Working Papers 36, University of Münster, Competence Center Internet Economy and Hybrid Systems, European Research Center for Information Systems (ERCIS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cciehs:36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/46583/1/518488063.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    3. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    4. Michael J. Page, 1997. "The Timing and Subsequent Performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1401-1420.
    5. Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.
    6. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. "Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December.
    7. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
    8. Lee, Inmoo, 1997. "Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1439-1466, September.
    9. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    10. Mark Trede, 2002. "Bootstrapping inequality measures under the null hypothesis: Is it worth the effort?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 77(1), pages 261-282, December.
    11. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2005. "Can Managers Forecast Aggregate Market Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 963-986, April.
    12. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    13. Brav, Alon & Geczy, Christopher & Gompers, Paul A., 2000. "Is the abnormal return following equity issuances anomalous?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 209-249, May.
    14. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    15. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Helwege, Jean & Liang, Nellie, 2004. "Initial Public Offerings in Hot and Cold Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 541-569, September.
    18. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    19. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    20. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. "The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    21. Spiess, D. Katherine & Affleck-Graves, John, 1999. "The long-run performance of stock returns following debt offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 45-73, October.
    22. Schiereck, D. & Wagner, C., 2002. "Kursentwicklung von Börsenneulingen am Neuen Markt und Reputation des Konsortialführers," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35287, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    23. Keloharju, Matti, 1993. "The winner's curse, legal liability, and the long-run price performance of initial public offerings in Finland," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 251-277, October.
    24. Ljungqvist, Alexander P., 1997. "Pricing initial public offerings: Further evidence from Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1309-1320, July.
    25. Alon Brav, 2000. "Inference in Long‐Horizon Event Studies: A Bayesian Approach with Application to Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1979-2016, October.
    26. Alon Brav & Paul A. Gompers, 2003. "The Role of Lockups in Initial Public Offerings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:483-518 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Spiess, D. Katherine & Affleck-Graves, John, 1995. "Underperformance in long-run stock returns following seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 243-267, July.
    29. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-580.
    30. John D. Lyon & Brad M. Barber & Chih‐Ling Tsai, 1999. "Improved Methods for Tests of Long‐Run Abnormal Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 165-201, February.
    31. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    32. Cusatis, Patrick J. & Miles, James A. & Woolridge, J. Randall, 1993. "Restructuring through spinoffs*1: The stock market evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 293-311, June.
    33. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
    34. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:27-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-389, March.
    37. Richard Stehle & Olaf Ehrhardt & René Przyborowsky, 2000. "Long‐run stock performance of German initial public offerings and seasoned equity issues," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(2), pages 173-196, June.
    38. Michael J., Ivan Page Reyneke, 1997. "The Timing and Subsequent Performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9‐10), pages 1401-1420, October.
    39. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. "Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-529, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Maher Kooli & Jean-François L'Her & Jean-Marc Suret, 2003. "Do IPOs Underperform in the Long-Run? New Evidence from the Canadian Stock Market," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-16, CIRANO.
    3. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    4. Josef Schuster, 2003. "The Cross-Section of European IPO Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp460, Financial Markets Group.
    5. Shikha Bhatia & Balwinder Singh, 2012. "Examining the Performance of IPOs," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 37(3), pages 219-251, August.
    6. Schuster, Josef Anton, 2003. "The cross-section of European IPO returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24859, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Saade, Samer, 2015. "Investor sentiment and the underperformance of technology firms initial public offerings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 205-232.
    8. Stavros Thomadakis & Christos Nounis & Dimitrios Gounopoulos, 2012. "Long†term Performance of Greek IPOs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-141, January.
    9. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    10. Farinos, Jose E. & Garcia, C. Jose & Ibanez, Ana Ma, 2007. "Operating and stock market performance of state-owned enterprise privatizations: The Spanish experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 367-389.
    11. Zhang Hanbing & Jeffrey E. Jarrett & Xia Pan, 2021. "The Post-IPO Performance in the PRC," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(11), pages 109-109, July.
    12. Chahine, Salim, 2004. "Long-run abnormal return after IPOs and optimistic analysts' forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    13. Cristiana Cardi & Camilla Mazzoli & Sabrina Severini, 2019. "People have the power: post IPO effects of intellectual capital disclosure," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 228-255, April.
    14. Kooli, Maher & Suret, Jean-Marc, 2004. "The aftermarket performance of initial public offerings in Canada," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 47-66, February.
    15. Chan, Konan & Ikenberry, David L. & Lee, Inmoo, 2007. "Do managers time the market? Evidence from open-market share repurchases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2673-2694, September.
    16. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    17. Wolfgang Bessler & Stefan Thies, 2006. "Initial Public Offerings, Subsequent Seasoned Equity Offerings, and Long-Run Performance: Evidence from IPOs in Germany," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 11(3), pages 1-37, Fall.
    18. Recep Bildik & Mustafa K. Yilmaz, 2008. "The Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 2(2), pages 49-76.
    19. João Batista Amorim Toniato, 2007. "“Hot Issue” IPO Markets and its Consequences for Issuing Firms and Investors: The UK Market of 2000," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    20. Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cciehs:36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ilmuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.