[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/1323.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Supply shocks in China hit the world economy via global supply chains

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Qianxue

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract
Global supply chains have become increasingly important in international trade over the past decade. Nevertheless, it remains di cult to quantify the role of supply-chain trade in transmitting and amplifying shocks, given the challenge of identifying and tracing the exogenous shocks across economies. This paper argues that the lockdown of Hubei province in China due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak provides a natural experiment to study the importance of China's role in global value chains. Since the lockdown started during the Lunar New Year, Hubei's migrant workers who went home could not return to workplaces in other provinces, resulting in a massive labor supply shock. I feed the supply shock through a Ricardian model with intermediate goods and sectoral linkages to study trade and welfare e ects across several economies. While welfare in China is the most strongly a ected, the shock also has sizeable implications for the US and the UK. However, close neighbors such as South Korea and Japan gain from the shock. There are large variations regarding the sectoral contributions to the aggregate welfare changes. The model also performs well in predicting bilateral export changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Qianxue, 2021. "Supply shocks in China hit the world economy via global supply chains," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1323, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1323
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2021/twerp_1323_-_zhang.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    2. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2017. "On the Measurement of Upstreamness and Downstreamness in Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 12549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2020. "Covid-19 Shocking Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 8572, CESifo.
    4. Harald Fadinger & Jan Schymik, 2020. "The Effects of Working From Home on COVID-19 Infections and Production - A Macroeconomic Analysis for Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_167, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Anton Pichler & Marco Pangallo & R. Maria del Rio-Chanona & Franc{c}ois Lafond & J. Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?," Papers 2005.10585, arXiv.org.
    6. Shaowen Luo & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2020. "China And World Output Impact Of The Hubei Lockdown During The Coronavirus Outbreak," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 583-592, October.
    7. Christoph E. Boehm & Aaron Flaaen & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2019. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 60-75, March.
    8. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2018. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2042-2096.
    9. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2020. "The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19," Papers 2003.14002, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qianxue Zhang, 2022. "The Hubei lockdown and its global impacts via supply chains," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1087-1109, September.
    2. d'Artis Kancs, 2024. "Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 2009-2033, May.
    3. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera & Nam Vu, 2023. "The flood that caused a drought," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(4), pages 965-981, October.
    4. Bahal, Girish & Lenzo, Damian, 2023. "Industries on the edge: The most exposed sectors to microeconomic shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. Bartesaghi, Paolo & Clemente, Gian Paolo & Grassi, Rosanna & Luu, Duc Thi, 2022. "The multilayer architecture of the global input-output network and its properties," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 304-341.
    6. Anton Pichler & J. Doyne Farmer, 2022. "Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input–output networks: the case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 273-293, July.
    7. Yuzuka Kashiwagi & Yasuyuki Todo & Petr Matous, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through global supply chains—Evidence from Hurricane Sandy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1186-1220, November.
    8. INOUE Hiroyasu & MURASE Yohsuke & TODO Yasuyuki, 2022. "Lockdowns Require Geographic Coordination because of the Propagation of Economic Effects through Supply Chains," Discussion papers 22076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    10. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "Intersectoral network‐based channel of aggregate TFP shocks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3897-3910, October.
    12. Meier, Matthias & Pinto, Eugenio, 2024. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    14. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 on Global Value Chains," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 154-177, June.
    15. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2020. "In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-18, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2021.
    16. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yohsuke Murase & Yasuyuki Todo, 2021. "Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.
    17. INOUE Hiroyasu & TODO Yasuyuki, 2022. "Propagation of Overseas Economic Shocks through Global Supply Chains: Firm-level evidence," Discussion papers 22062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Alessandro Sforza & Marina Steininger, 2020. "Globalization in the Time of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8184, CESifo.
    19. Yasuyuki Todo & Keita Oikawa & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India," Working Papers DP-2021-40, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    20. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 ; Labor supply shock ; Global supply chains ; Sectoral linkages ; Productivity effect ; Welfare effect JEL Classification: F10 ; F11 ; F14 ; F17 ; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.