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A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions

Author

Listed:
  • KENT D. DANIEL

    (Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management)

  • David Hirshleifer

    (Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, Department of Finance)

  • AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract
We propose a theory based on investor overconfidence and biased self- attribution to explain several of the securities returns patterns that seem anomalous from the perspective of efficient markets with rational investors. The theory is based on two premises derived from evidence in psychological studies. The first is that individuals are overconfident about their ability to evaluate securities, in the sense that they overestimate the precision of their private information signals. The second is that investors' confidence changes in a biased fashion as a function of their decision outcomes. The first premise implies overreaction to private information arrival and underreaction to public information arrival. This is consistent with (1) post-corporate event and post-earnings announcement stock price 'drift', (2) negative long- lag autocorrelations (long-run 'overreaction'), and (3) excess volatility of asset prices. Adding the second premise leads to (4) positive short-lag autocorrelations ('momentum'), and (5) short-run post-earnings announcement 'drift,' and negative correlation between future stock returns and long-term measures of past accounting performance. The model also offers several untested empirical implications and implications for corporate financial policy.

Suggested Citation

  • KENT D. DANIEL & David Hirshleifer & AVANIDHAR SUBRAHMANYAM, 2004. "A Theory of Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, and Security Market Under- and Over-reactions," Finance 0412006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0412006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 45. PDF
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Markus Noth & Martin Weber, 2003. "Information Aggregation with Random Ordering: Cascades and Overconfidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 166-189, January.
    3. Stanley C. W. Salvary, 2003. "Financial accounting information and the relevance/irrelevance issue," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 140-175.
    4. Goetzmann, William N. & Massa, Massimo, 2002. "Daily Momentum and Contrarian Behavior of Index Fund Investors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 375-389, September.
    5. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340, Elsevier.
    6. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," NBER Working Papers 7214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    9. Evan Gatev & William N. Goetzmann & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2006. "Pairs Trading: Performance of a Relative-Value Arbitrage Rule," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 797-827.
    10. Pereira Reichhardt, Joaquín & Iqbal, Tabassum, 2014. "Investment Decisions: Are we fully-Rational?," MPRA Paper 57686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-040, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    12. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    13. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word-of-Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trades of Money Managers," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2006, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Lubna Zia & Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu & Shujahat Haider Hashmi, 2017. "Testing overconfidence bias in Pakistani stock market," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1289656-128, January.
    15. Ben-David, Itzhak & Hirshleifer, David, 2011. "Beyond the Disposition Effect: Do Investors Really Like Gains More Than Losses?," Working Paper Series 2011-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    16. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2013. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(5), pages 1087-1145.
    17. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    18. Carl Chiarella & Tony He, 2002. "An Adaptive Model on Asset Pricing and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 135, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    20. Bruce D. Grundy & J. Spencer Martin, "undated". "Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the Source of Rewards to Momentum Investing," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    21. Palomino, Frederic & Sadrieh, Abdolkarim, 2011. "Overconfidence and delegated portfolio management," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 159-177, April.
    22. Shachar Kariv, 2005. "Overconfidence and Informational Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics.
    23. Joshua D Coval & David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2021. "Can Individual Investors Beat the Market?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 552-579.
    24. Sanjay Sehgal & Sakshi Jain & Pr Laurence the Porteu de la Morandiere, 2013. "Long-term Prior Return Patterns in Stock Returns: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(2), pages 53-78.
    25. Shengle Lin & Stephen Rassenti, 2010. "Are Under- and Over-reaction the Same Matter? A Price Inertia based Account," Working Papers 10-05, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.

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    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Market Efficiency; Investor Psychology; Asset Pricing;
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    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics

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