[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wus005/6625.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Abel, Guy
  • Brottrager, Michael
  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus
  • Muttarak, Raya
Abstract
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel, Guy & Brottrager, Michael & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Muttarak, Raya, 2018. "Climate, Conflict and Forced Migration," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 272, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:6625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.wu.ac.at/6625/
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    2. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    3. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    4. Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2017. "Do Natural Hazards Cause International Migration?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 445-480.
    5. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    6. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, September.
    7. Kim, Kyoo il, 2006. "Sample selection models with a common dummy endogenous regressor in simultaneous equations: A simple two-step estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 280-286, May.
    8. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    9. Clark Gray & Erika Wise, 2016. "Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 555-568, April.
    10. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    11. Gerónimo Barrios Puente & Francisco Perez & Robert J. Gitter, 2016. "The Effect of Rainfall on Migration from Mexico to the United States," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 890-909, December.
    12. Andreas Backhaus & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Chris Muris, 2015. "Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Isabella Buber-Ennser & Judith Kohlenberger & Bernhard Rengs & Zakarya Al Zalak & Anne Goujon & Erich Striessnig & Michaela Potančoková & Richard Gisser & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz, 2016. "Human Capital, Values, and Attitudes of Persons Seeking Refuge in Austria in 2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Drabo, Alassane & Mbaye, Linguère Mously, 2015. "Natural disasters, migration and education: an empirical analysis in developing countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 767-796, December.
    15. Nancy Lozano-Gracia & Gianfranco Piras & Ana Maria Ibáñez & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2010. "The Journey to Safety: Conflict-Driven Migration Flows in Colombia," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(2), pages 157-180, April.
    16. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    2. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    4. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2021. "How climate change leads to emigration: Conditional and long‐run effects," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2323-2349, November.
    5. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," PSE Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    7. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    8. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2023. "Global warming and urbanization," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1187-1223, July.
    9. Amelia Aburn & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Gone with the Wind: International Migration," Working Papers 1708, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
    10. Chiara Falco & Franco Donzelli & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    11. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    12. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    13. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    14. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    15. Wesselbaum Dennis, 2017. "Socioeconomic Driving Forces of International Migration," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    17. Michael Brottrager & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Dominic Kniveton & Saleem H. Ali, 2023. "Natural resources modulate the nexus between environmental shocks and human mobility," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    18. Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R. & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2024. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    20. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forced migration; climate change; conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wus005:6625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WU Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://research.wu.ac.at/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.